What is the expected contribution of the Black Hollow Sun complex to ContourGlobal's overall revenue and earnings forecasts?

Fundamental impact

The Black Hollow Sun (BHS) complex will add a total of 324 MWp of solar capacity to ContourGlobal’s pipeline once BHS II is online in 2026. Using a conservative 20 % capacity factor and a typical U.S. utility‑scale PPA price of ≈ US$45 /MWh, the full complex is expected to generate roughly 567 GWh of electricity per year, translating into ≈ US$25–$30 million of incremental annual revenue. Because solar assets have markedly lower operating‑costs than ContourGlobal’s legacy thermal portfolio, the complex will contribute a high‑margin earnings bump—roughly US$8‑$10 million of net income each year (≈ 30‑35 % of its cash‑flow), bolstering the group’s overall EBITDA growth rate.

Trading implications

At the current price, the market is still pricing in the early‑stage BHS I output only, leaving the full‑complex upside largely un‑priced. When ContourGlobal’s next earnings call incorporates the projected 2026 solar contribution, analysts are likely to raise the FY25‑FY26 revenue and EPS guidance by 2‑3 %, which should trigger a re‑rating of the stock from “neutral” toward “buy”. Traders can therefore view the BHS development as a mid‑term catalyst: a modest‑to‑moderate upside to the equity, especially if ContourGlobal signals an accelerated timeline or secures premium PPAs. A pull‑back in the stock on short‑term US‑solar financing news could present a value‑entry point ahead of the anticipated earnings uplift.