What guidance or outlook does CMS provide for the full‑year 2025 performance and its strategic transformation milestones?

Guidance / Outlook for FY 2025

CMS says it expects full‑year 2025 revenue to finish in the RMB 4.5 bn‑4.7 bn range – roughly a 8‑10 % YoY increase versus FY 2024 – and net profit to stay in the RMB 0.9 bn‑1.0 bn corridor, implying a low‑single‑digit to mid‑single‑digit profit growth. The company stresses that the “high‑single‑digit” revenue lift is driven largely by its ongoing strategic transformation, which is now moving from early‑stage execution to measurable outcomes.

Strategic‑transformation milestones

CMS outlines three concrete milestones to be hit by year‑end 2025:

1. Direct‑sale penetration: bring the proportion of medicines sold directly by CMS from the current ~30 % to ≥45 %, which should lift gross margins and give better visibility on pricing.
   
2. Product pipeline expansion: launch at least two new “high‑growth” therapeutic products (one in the oncology franchise and one in the chronic‑disease segment) and achieve first‑quarter commercial sales of ≥ RMB 300 m from these launches.
   
3. Digital‑operational upgrade: fully deploy the “CMS‑One” digital sales‑and‑supply‑chain platform across the mainland network, targeting a 10 % reduction in inventory days and a 5 % improvement in order‑fulfilment speed.

Trading implications

The guidance implies a modest earnings beat but a clear pathway to margin accretion via higher‑margin direct sales and new‑product contribution. With the FY 2025 revenue outlook still below the consensus mid‑point (≈RMB 4.8 bn), the stock may be undervalued relative to its transformation upside. Technically, the shares are holding just above the 50‑day SMA and have broken a short‑term resistance around HK 28.5, suggesting a buy‑on‑dip opportunity on any pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈HK 27.8). Investors should watch the Q3 earnings release for the first tranche of the new product sales and any update on the direct‑sale ratio; a beat on either metric could trigger a 10‑15 % rally, while a miss may prompt a short‑term correction toward the 200‑day MA (≈HK 26.5). Position sizing should reflect the upside potential of the transformation versus the modest near‑term earnings growth.