What is the outlook for demand in the key end‑markets (e.g., de‑icing, food processing, water treatment) and how might that influence future sales growth?

Demand outlook in the core end‑markets

• De‑icing: Seasonal weather patterns in North America have been unusually cold this winter, and the “strong third quarter” commentary from Compass Minerals underscores that de‑icing demand remains robust. With no sign of a milder spring and a historically low inventory of road‑salt in many states, usage is expected to stay at or above the 2024 level through the remainder of the fiscal year.
  
• Food‑processing: Global food‑security concerns and the continued shift toward higher‑protein, processed‑food diets are sustaining a steady‑to‑moderately rising demand for salt as a preservative and flavor enhancer. The company’s pricing discipline, highlighted in the earnings release, suggests it can capture incremental margin even as volumes edge higher.
  
• Water‑treatment: Tightening municipal and industrial water‑quality regulations worldwide are driving a gradual expansion of the water‑treatment market. Compass’ “year‑over‑year improvement” in performance metrics reflects a growing uptake of its specialty‑grade salts for softening and disinfection, a trend that is expected to accelerate as new compliance deadlines approach.

Implications for sales growth and trading strategy

The confluence of a solid de‑icing season, resilient food‑processing demand, and a expanding water‑treatment niche points to a multi‑digit, double‑digit sales‑growth trajectory for Compass Minerals over the next 12‑18 months. The company’s ability to sustain pricing power while expanding volume in these end‑markets should translate into higher same‑store sales growth and incremental revenue streams.

From a trading perspective, the fundamentals are supportive of a bullish bias on CMP. The stock is currently trading near its 200‑day moving average, a technical support level that has held through previous seasonal cycles. With the upside potential from both pricing and volume, a break above the $70‑$72 resistance zone could trigger a short‑‑to‑medium‑term rally, while a dip below the 200‑day average would warrant caution and a possible pull‑back. Position sizing around the $71‑$73 range, with a stop just below the 200‑day line, aligns risk with the positive demand outlook.