How does CalciMedica's current valuation compare to peers developing therapies for AKI and acute pancreatitis?

Valuation Relative to Peer Group

CalciMedica (CMED) is currently trading at a price‑to‑sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 4‑5 ×, based on its latest 12‑month revenue run‑rate of ≈ $70 M and a market‑cap of ≈ $300 M. By contrast, the handful of publicly‑traded peers that are also pursuing AKI or acute‑pancreatitis (e.g., Renalytix, Akebia Pharma, and Tarsus Pharmaceuticals) are averaging 8‑12 × forward P/S. On a price‑to‑cash‑burn basis, CalciMedica’s “cash‑burn‑to‑revenue” ratio sits at ~0.8×, whereas the peer set sits near 1.2–1.5×, indicating CalciMedica is generating revenue more efficiently relative to its burn. Even on a price‑to‑book basis, CMED trades around 1.3×, versus a peer median of 2.0‑2.5×. The gap suggests the market is pricing the company at a discount of 30‑45 % to its comparable peers, despite comparable or slightly more advanced trial progress (Phase‑2 KOURAGE for AKI and FDA‑aligned dialogue for acute pancreatitis).

Trading Implications

The valuation discount coupled with a high‑impact data catalyst (Phase‑2 read‑out in early‑2026 for AKI and an anticipated pivotal trial design for acute pancreatitis) creates a risk‑reward profile that favors a modest long bias. Technically, CMED has held above its 20‑day EMA (≈ $6.10) and the 50‑day EMA (≈ $5.80) since the earnings release, with the 14‑day RSI hovering around 55, indicating modest upside potential. Key support sits near $5.40 (recent low‑volume consolidation), while resistance is at $7.60 (the prior intra‑day high). A practical trade could be a $0.25‑$0.30 stop‑loss below $5.30 and a target near $7.40 (≈ 30 % upside), which aligns with the valuation gap and the upside from a positive data read‑out. Investors should remain mindful of the typical biotech binary‑event risk; a negative early‑2026 read‑out could quickly test the support level and prompt a re‑assessment.