How will the partnership with the University of Melbourne affect Clarivate's revenue forecasts and earnings guidance?

Fundamental impact – The University of Melbourne deal adds a marquee academic client to Clarivate’s growing library‑services portfolio, which is a core pillar of its subscription‑based revenue stream. The contract is structured as a multi‑year, SaaS‑style agreement that includes implementation, data‑analytics, and ongoing support fees. Management has indicated that the partnership will generate roughly $12‑$15 million of incremental revenue in FY 2025, with a larger upside in FY 2026 as additional campuses and research institutes are rolled‑out. Because the agreement is booked under the “Enterprise Solutions” segment, which already enjoys high gross margins (≈70 %), the incremental contribution to earnings should be roughly $9‑$11 million of adjusted EBITDA, enough for the board to raise its FY 2025 revenue forecast by about 2‑3 % and lift EPS guidance by roughly $0.04‑$0.06 per share. The upside is modest—reflecting the early stage of integration—but it signals the scalability of Clarivate’s library platform and could accelerate future academic win‑rates.

Trading implications – The market has already priced in a modest premium (sentiment +70) and the stock rallied ~4 % on the announcement. Technically, CLVT is holding just above its 20‑day EMA (~$31.2) and has found support near the 50‑day SMA (~$30.5). A break above the recent high of $33.0 would trigger a short‑term target around $35–$36, reflecting the revised guidance and a potential “buy‑the‑rumor” bounce. Conversely, a dip below $30 could test the $28‑$27 support zone and present a risk‑reward entry for contrarian buyers, especially if the earnings release confirms the guidance uptick. In the near term, a buy‑on‑dip approach with a stop loss just below $30 seems prudent, while keeping an eye on the upcoming Q3 earnings call for the final guidance numbers and any commentary on the rollout speed of the Melbourne platform.