What is the expected timeline to bring the 9.5 Mtpa capacity online and how does it compare to peers’ project schedules?

Timeline: Commonwealth LNG says the final DOE non‑FTA export authorization clears the last regulatory hurdle for its 9.5 Mtpa project. The company now targets first‑of‑its‑kind commercial operations by late‑2027, with the full 9.5 Mtpa train expected to be in service in early‑2028 once EPC‑stage construction and long‑lead‑item procurement are completed.

Peer comparison: In the U.S. export market the nearest competitors are already further along: Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Phase 2 and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG are slated for 2025‑2026 start‑up, while Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 and Tellurian’s Driftwood are pushing 2028. That puts Commonwealth’s schedule about 1‑2 years behind the leading projects (Cheniere/NextDecade) but roughly in line with the later‑stage peers (Sempra, Tellurian). The lag reflects the company’s later start‑up and the need to secure additional financing and downstream off‑take contracts.

Trading implications: The DOE clearance removes a binary regulatory risk and gives the CLNG stock a clear catalyst window – the market will price in the 2027/28 commissioning date. Relative‑value traders can look for a short‑to‑mid‑term rally as the timeline becomes more certain, but must keep an eye on construction‑phase cost overruns and the risk that the 2027 target slides further, which would pressure the share price. In a broader context, CLNG now trades at a discount to peers that are nearer to revenue generation; a long‑position could be justified if the company continues to meet its 2027 milestone, while a pair‑trade against earlier‑coming projects (e.g., Cheniere) could capture the timing differential in the LNG‑export premium.