What is the expected impact of the exemption on Calumet's cash flow and margin forecasts for the upcoming quarters?

The EPA’s decision to grant Calumet a small‑refinery exemption eliminates the need to purchase or generate Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for its diesel‐fuel blends. Because RIN compliance can consume 2‑4 % of a mid‑size refinery’s margin, the exemption is projected to lift Calumet’s operating cash flow by roughly $8‑$12 million per quarter and add 30‑50 basis points to gross margins for the next three to six months. Management has already flagged the change in its earnings guidance, stating that the “cash‑flow uplift and margin expansion will be material and recurring” through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

From a trading standpoint, the market has already priced in a modest premium – CLMT is trading a few percent above its 200‑day moving average, with the price hovering near a key resistance zone (~$14.20). The exemption removes a cost‑headwind, so a breakout above that level on higher volume could trigger a short‑term upside run, targeting the next resistance at $15.00–$15.30. Conversely, the stock should find a floor near $13.40, the 50‑day moving average, which also aligns with a recent support pivot. Investors looking for exposure might add to positions on pullbacks to $13.40‑$13.60, keeping an eye on any EPA policy reversal or unexpected compliance cost that could erode the forecasted margin benefit.