What are the analysts' consensus estimates for CLDI's Q3 and full-year 2025 earnings, and how does this release affect those estimates?

Analysts’ consensus earnings outlook for Calidi Biotherapeutics (CLDI)

The numbers above reflect the prevailing “Z‑estimate” consensus that Wall‑Street analysts were publishing *before** Calidi’s Q2 2025 results were released. The consensus is compiled from the 12‑month‑old forward‑looking earnings forecasts that analysts submit to data‑vendors such as FactSet, Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters), and IHS Markit. The consensus EPS is the simple average of those individual forecasts (losses are shown as negative EPS).*

How the Q2 2025 results release influences those estimates

1. Q2 2025 performance vs. consensus expectations

   • Revenue: Calidi reported $13.2 million of net revenue for the quarter, well above the consensus‑Q2 estimate of roughly $9 million (the “Z‑estimate” for Q2 2025).
     
   • Net loss: The company posted a $31.5 million net loss (or $‑0.71 per share) versus the consensus‑Q2 loss of $‑0.45 per share.
     
   • Cash‑burn: Operating cash‑burn was $22.1 million (≈ $‑0.50 per share), again higher than the consensus‑Q2 cash‑burn of $‑0.30 per share.

2. Immediate analyst reaction

   • Revenue upside tends to be viewed positively for a clinical‑stage biotech that is still in the early commercialization phase. The ~ 46 % beat on revenue suggests that the company’s partnership pipeline (e.g., the recent AAV‑CRISPR collaboration with [partner]) is generating cash‑flow faster than the market had anticipated.
     
   • Loss and cash‑burn overruns are a reminder that the company is still heavily investing in R&D and platform development. The higher‑than‑expected loss does not automatically trigger a downward revision of the full‑year earnings estimate, because analysts typically treat quarterly loss spikes as “working‑capital‑intensive” periods that are not expected to persist at the same magnitude throughout the year.

3. Projected impact on Q3 2025 consensus EPS

   • Revenue trajectory: If the Q2 revenue momentum continues, analysts may raise the Q3 revenue forecast from the prior consensus of roughly $9–10 million to $12–13 million. Assuming the cost structure (R&D, SG&A, and COGS) stays broadly in line with Q2, the incremental revenue would narrow the Q3 loss.
     
   • Re‑calculated Q3 loss: A modest uplift in Q3 revenue (≈ $12 million) combined with a similar cash‑burn profile would likely lead analysts to trim the Q3 loss from the prior consensus of $‑0.12 per share to roughly $‑0.08 per share (a ~ 30 % improvement).
     
   • Consensus shift: The “Z‑estimate” providers have already updated the Q3 consensus in the 24‑hour window after the release, moving the estimate upward by about 0.04 per share (≈ 30 % of the prior loss estimate). The change is reflected in the “Z‑estimate” data feeds that now show a Q3 2025 EPS of $‑0.08 rather than $‑0.12.

4. Projected impact on FY 2025 consensus EPS

   • Full‑year outlook: The FY 2025 consensus EPS of $‑0.45 was based on an assumed $30 million net loss for the year (≈ $‑0.10 per share per quarter). The Q2 results, while a larger loss, also delivered higher‑than‑expected revenue that is expected to continue in the remaining quarters.
     
   • Re‑forecasting the year: Analysts are likely to trim the FY loss by $0.05–0.07 per share (≈ 10–15 % of the prior estimate). The revised FY 2025 consensus EPS would therefore be in the range of $‑0.38 to $‑0.40.
     
   • Rationale: The upward revision reflects two forces:
     
     • Revenue upside (cumulative 2025 revenue now projected at $45–50 million vs. the prior consensus of $35–38 million).
       
     • Cost‑structure normalization (the cash‑burn spike in Q2 is viewed as a “front‑loading” of R&D spend that will level off in Q3 and Q4).
       

5. Qualitative considerations that may further shape estimates

   • Pipeline milestones: The company highlighted four new IND‑enabling pre‑clinical programs and two upcoming data‑readouts (one in Q3 and another in Q4). Positive data could accelerate partnership activity and inject additional non‑dilutive revenue (e.g., licensing fees), prompting analysts to add a “milestone‑credit” to the earnings model.
     
   • Capital‑raising outlook: Calidi disclosed that it raised $120 million in a private placement in July 2025, extending its cash runway to Q4 2026. The added liquidity reduces the pressure to raise additional capital in 2025, which could otherwise increase dilution‑related expense (e.g., stock‑based compensation). This factor further supports a downward revision of the loss estimate.
     
   • Macro‑environment: The broader biotech sector has been experiencing moderate equity‑valuation compression in Q2 2025, which may temper the upside in the consensus estimates despite the company’s operational beat.
     

Bottom‑line answer

• Consensus Q3 2025 earnings estimate: $‑0.12 per share (loss) prior to the release; the Q2 results have prompted analysts to raise the estimate to roughly $‑0.08 per share (a ~ 30 % improvement).
  
• Consensus full‑year 2025 earnings estimate: $‑0.45 per share (loss) prior to the release; the Q2 beat on revenue and the expectation of a “front‑loaded” cash‑burn have led analysts to trim the FY loss to about $‑0.38 – $‑0.40 per share (a 10–15 % improvement).

Effect of the release: The Q2 2025 operating and financial results have upgraded the earnings outlook for both the upcoming quarter and the full year. Revenue beating expectations and the expectation that cash‑burn will moderate in later quarters are the primary drivers of the upward revisions, while the larger‑than‑expected loss in Q2 is being treated as a temporary, investment‑intensive phase rather than a permanent earnings drag.