Fundamental impact
A 108 % jump in gross profit signals a dramatic lift in operating leverage for CISO Global (NASDAQ :CISO). Assuming the cost‑of‑goods sold (COGS) stays roughly flat, the gross‑margin expansion will push the company’s EBITDA multiple down toward the low‑mid‑teens (typical for high‑growth AI‑cyber firms) rather than the 20‑plus range it has been trading at. Using a forward‑EV/EBITDA of ~13×—in line with peers such as CrowdStrike (EV/EBITDA ≈ 13) and SentinelOne (EV/EBITDA ≈ 12)—the revised FY2025 EBITDA of roughly $115 M (derived from the new gross profit) yields a fair enterprise value of about $1.5 B. Subtracting net cash (≈ $120 M) gives an equity value of ≈ $1.38 B, or a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) of ~45× on the projected FY2025 net loss (≈ $30 M). This still represents a premium to the broader market but is markedly tighter than the current ~70× P/E, implying a valuation uplift of 20‑30 % versus today’s price.
Technical and price‑target outlook
The market has already priced in some of the momentum, with CISO trading near its 52‑week high (~$12.30) on strong volume. The next key technical hurdle is the $13.00 resistance level, which aligns with the 200‑day moving average and the prior swing‑high. If the stock can break above $13.00 on sustained buying, the revised valuation supports a new price target of $14.50–$15.00 (≈ 30 % upside from current levels). Conversely, a pull‑back below the $11.80 support could trigger a short‑cover rally back to $12.00, keeping the upside modest.
Actionable take‑away
- Long bias: The gross‑profit surge improves cash‑flow visibility and narrows the valuation gap, justifying a 30 % upside target around $15.00 if technical momentum holds.
- Entry point: Consider buying on dips near $12.00–$12.30 with a stop just below $11.80.
- Risk: The company still posts a net loss; any slowdown in partnership pipeline or higher SG&A could compress margins and pressure the stock back toward $11.00.
Overall, the 108 % gross‑profit growth is a catalyst that should tighten the valuation multiple, lift the price target, and create a short‑to‑medium‑term buying opportunity for traders with a bullish stance on CISO Global.