What impact could this lease have on Comstock's sameāstore revenue growth and earnings guidance?
Fundamental impact
The 1,700āsqāft lease at TheāÆHartford adds a new, higherāmargin, wellnessāfocused tenant to one of Comstockās flagship mixedāuse assets. Because the space is streetālevel retail, the lease will generate incremental baseārent and a proportionate share of the āsameāstoreā revenue that the company reports for its existing portfolio. Given the modest size of the space relative to the total 1.1āÆmillionāÆsqāÆft of TheāÆHartford, the direct contribution to sameāstore revenue is likely in the lowāsingleādigitāpercent range (āāÆ1ā2āÆ% of the propertyās quarterly retail income). However, the tenantās premiumāpricing model and the āselfācareā positioning can lift the overall rentāperāsquareāfoot profile of the asset, nudging the propertyās average leaseārate higher and providing a modest cushion to the companyās earnings outlook.
Earnings guidance implications
Managementās earnings guidance is built on assumptions about occupancy, rent growth and tenant mix. Adding Perspireāa brand that commands a higher perāsqāft rent than a typical office or serviceātenantāimproves the quality of the tenant base and may lead to a modest upward revision of the āsameāstoreā revenue growth trajectory for the fiscal year. In practice, analysts will likely view this as a ācatalystā that could push the companyās FYā2025 sameāstore revenue growth estimate from the lowāmidāsingleādigit range to the upperāsingleādigit range, and could shave a few cents off the earningsāperāshare (EPS) guidance ceiling. The effect is incremental rather than transformational, but it does provide a positive data point for the next earnings update.
Trading takeāaway
The lease is a smallābutāpositive boost to occupancy and rentāmix, and it should tighten the āsameāstoreā revenue outlook enough for the market to price in a modest upside. If the stock has already run on the broader sector rally, a shortāterm pullāback could present a buying opportunity with a target of 5ā7āÆ% upside, assuming the market digests the incremental sameāstore growth and a potential modest lift in the earnings guidance. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings call for any explicit guidance upgrades that reference the new wellness tenant.