What impact could this lease have on Comstock's same‑store revenue growth and earnings guidance? | CHCI (Aug 12, 2025) | Candlesense

What impact could this lease have on Comstock's same‑store revenue growth and earnings guidance?

Fundamental impact

The 1,700‑sq‑ft lease at The Hartford adds a new, higher‑margin, wellness‑focused tenant to one of Comstock’s flagship mixed‑use assets. Because the space is street‑level retail, the lease will generate incremental base‑rent and a proportionate share of the ā€œsame‑storeā€ revenue that the company reports for its existing portfolio. Given the modest size of the space relative to the total 1.1 million sq ft of The Hartford, the direct contribution to same‑store revenue is likely in the low‑single‑digit‑percent range (ā‰ˆā€Æ1‑2 % of the property’s quarterly retail income). However, the tenant’s premium‑pricing model and the ā€œself‑careā€ positioning can lift the overall rent‑per‑square‑foot profile of the asset, nudging the property’s average lease‑rate higher and providing a modest cushion to the company’s earnings outlook.

Earnings guidance implications

Management’s earnings guidance is built on assumptions about occupancy, rent growth and tenant mix. Adding Perspire—a brand that commands a higher per‑sq‑ft rent than a typical office or service‑tenant—improves the quality of the tenant base and may lead to a modest upward revision of the ā€œsame‑storeā€ revenue growth trajectory for the fiscal year. In practice, analysts will likely view this as a ā€œcatalystā€ that could push the company’s FY‑2025 same‑store revenue growth estimate from the low‑mid‑single‑digit range to the upper‑single‑digit range, and could shave a few cents off the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) guidance ceiling. The effect is incremental rather than transformational, but it does provide a positive data point for the next earnings update.

Trading take‑away

The lease is a small‑but‑positive boost to occupancy and rent‑mix, and it should tighten the ā€œsame‑storeā€ revenue outlook enough for the market to price in a modest upside. If the stock has already run on the broader sector rally, a short‑term pull‑back could present a buying opportunity with a target of 5‑7 % upside, assuming the market digests the incremental same‑store growth and a potential modest lift in the earnings guidance. Keep an eye on the upcoming earnings call for any explicit guidance upgrades that reference the new wellness tenant.