What is the primary driver behind the shift from positive to negative EBITDA in the latest quarter?

Primary driver of the EBITDA swing

The abrupt transition from a $4.9 M positive EBITDA in the prior quarter to a $3.2 M negative EBITDA is driven primarily by a significant deterioration in operating profitability. In the latest quarter Conifex’s operating costs rose sharply—likely a combination of higher timber‑price inputs, increased labor and maintenance expenses, and a modest decline in sales volume/price—while revenue growth failed to offset these pressures. The resulting cost‑over‑revenue gap turned operating cash flow negative, which is reflected in the swing from a modest profit to a $3.2 M loss before depreciation, interest and taxes.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: The negative EBITDA signals a short‑term earnings weakness that could pressure the TSX:CFF share price, especially given the sharply negative sentiment score (‑70). Investors should watch the company’s upcoming guidance on sales volumes and cost‑containment measures (e.g., production efficiency, pricing strategy) before committing new capital.
• Technical: The stock has likely breached recent support levels around the 12‑month moving average, with volume spikes on the earnings release suggesting short‑covering and bearish positioning. A break below the $7‑$8 CAD price zone could trigger further downside, whereas a bounce back above the 50‑day SMA with improved volume would signal a buying opportunity.
• Actionable insight: Maintain a wait‑and‑see stance until Conifex provides clearer forward‑looking metrics (e.g., Q3 volume, cost‑reduction initiatives). If the stock dips below the key support zone and shows no signs of operational turnaround, consider short‑positioning with tight stops. Conversely, a strong corrective bounce—back above the 50‑day MA with volume confirmation—could be a short‑term buying trigger for risk‑adjusted exposure.