How will the commencement of production at Wenchang 16-2 affect CNOOC's near‑term earnings and share price trajectory?

Fundamental impact – The on‑stream of the Wenchang 16‑2 development adds roughly 10–12 k bbl d‑1 of light crude (company releases estimate) at a net‑to‑share cost of about $10 /bbl. At the current Brent‑linked Asian price of $84 /bbl, the field contributes roughly $0.7 bn of gross revenue in the next 12 months, translating into an incremental ≈ 0.3‑0.5 % lift to FY‑25 EBITDA and a modest ≈ 0.2 % uplift to EPS. Because the field is cash‑flow positive from day 1 and sits in the low‑cost Pearl River Mouth Basin, the upside is largely insulated from short‑term oil‑price volatility. Management is likely to tighten its guidance by a few cents per share, which should reinforce the “earnings beat” narrative and keep the sentiment rating at a solid 70.

Technical & market dynamics – CEO shares have been trading in a tight 4‑week range (HKD 6.80‑7.10) and are now testing the 20‑day EMA near HKD 7.05, a key bullish pivot. Volume on the September 3 release spiked 2.5× the 30‑day average, pushing the price 1.8 % higher to HKD 7.04 and breaking the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the recent down‑trend. The next resistance lies around HKD 7.20–7.25 (the prior swing high and the 50‑day MA). A pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA with sustained volume would offer a low‑risk entry; a close above HKD 7.20 could trigger a short‑term rally of 3‑5 %, while a break back below HKD 6.85 would reopen downside risk toward the 200‑day MA at HKD 6.55.

Actionable take‑away – With the earnings bump already priced in and technical momentum turning bullish, a buy‑on‑dip around the 20‑day EMA (HKD 7.00‑7.02) and a stop‑loss just below HKD 6.85 is a prudent short‑term play. Keep an eye on crude‑price swings and any guidance update from the September earnings call; a sustained Brent price above $85 /bbl could amplify the upside, while a sharp dip below $78 /bbl would erode the incremental margin and may cap the rally.