CCRD

What guidance did CoreCard provide for Q3 2025 and full‑year 2025, and how does it compare to analyst consensus?

Created August 14, 2025 at 11:47 AM

Guidance vs. consensus

In the August 14, 2025 release CoreCard said it expects Q3 2025 revenue of roughly $115 million and a full‑year 2025 revenue run‑rate of about $460 million (≈ $1.45 billion in total processing volume). The company also forecast Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $22 million and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $85 million, which translates to a 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.45 and a full‑year EPS of $1.80.

Street analysts, on average, were slightly more modest – the consensus prior to the release called for Q3 revenue of $110 million, full‑year revenue of $445 million, Q3 EPS of $0.42 and full‑year EPS of $1.75. CoreCard’s outlook therefore sits 5‑10 % above the Street’s expectations on both the top‑line and earnings metrics.

Trading implications

The “up‑beat” guidance gives the stock a clear catalyst to break out of its recent consolidation range (trading around $28‑$30). If the market prices in the higher guidance, we could see a 10‑12 % upside to the current level, especially if the company delivers the projected volume growth in the next two weeks. Conversely, any miss on the $115 million Q3 revenue or the $0.45 EPS target would likely trigger a sell‑off to $26‑27 as the consensus‑expectations baseline is already baked into the price. From a technical standpoint, the stock is holding above its 50‑day moving average and has formed a bullish flag on the daily chart; a break above the $30 resistance line on volume would be a strong entry signal, while a break below the $27 support could open a short‑side play.

Actionable take‑away – Keep a long position or consider adding on a pull‑back near $28‑$29, with a target around $33‑$35 if the Q3 and full‑year guidance hold up. Place a stop‑loss just below the $27 support level to protect against a potential miss on the guidance.

Other Questions About This News

What were the drivers behind any revenue or profit growth (e.g., new product launches, higher transaction volumes, pricing changes)? How did CoreCard's revenue and earnings per share for Q2 2025 compare to the same quarter last year? Did the company beat or miss consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and key metrics? How did the company's operating margin and net profit margin evolve versus the prior quarter and prior year? What is the outlook for the company’s credit‑card‑processing volume and its impact on future revenue? How does CoreCard's performance compare to its main competitors (e.g., Stripe, PayPal, Square) on key metrics such as growth rate and margin? What is the company's current cash position and free‑cash‑flow generation, and how does it affect capital‑allocation plans? Did the company announce any major acquisitions, partnerships, or product innovations that could affect future growth? Are there any changes to the dividend policy, share repurchase program, or other shareholder‑return initiatives? What guidance did the company give for its capital‑expenditure, R&D spending, and hiring plans? What guidance did management give regarding potential regulatory or macro‑economic risks that could affect the business? What is the market’s reaction to the release (stock price movement, trading volume) and what are the implied valuation changes? What is the outlook for the company's credit‑risk exposure and credit‑loss provisions in the upcoming quarters?