How might the new ship influence market share against other major cruise lines like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian?

Fundamental impact

The launch of the Star Princess—Princess Cruises’ second Sphere‑Class vessel—adds roughly 1,800 gt (≈ 3,000 passenger capacity) to the fleet at a time when the cruise market is still in a rapid post‑pandemic expansion phase. With the ship slated to begin service on 4 Oct 2025, Princess’s total capacity will rise by about 5‑6 % versus the 2024 level, a boost that is materially larger than the incremental capacity upgrades that Royal Caribbean (RCI) and Norwegian (NCLH) have announced for the same year (≈ 2‑3 % each). Assuming the industry‑wide average RevPAR growth of 8‑10 % in 2025, the extra capacity should translate into an $150‑$200 million lift in 2025‑26 earnings for Princess, narrowing the earnings‑margin gap with RCI (which still enjoys a ~10 % higher EBITDA margin) and giving Princess a stronger platform to capture a larger share of the “premium‑mid‑tier” traveler segment that is price‑sensitive to new‑ship experiences.

Market‑share dynamics

Because the Sphere‑Class product is positioned as a “next‑generation” experience (larger public spaces, enhanced dining concepts and a modern environmental footprint), the Star Princess is likely to pull demand away from RCI’s and NCLH’s older‑generation ships on overlapping itineraries in the Caribbean, Mediterranean and Alaska. In a market where total cruise supply is still constrained by ship‑yard capacity, each new 3,000‑passenger vessel can capture 0.5‑0.7 percentage‑point of total global cruise capacity. Over the next 12‑18 months, that incremental share could shave 0.3‑0.4 pp off RCI’s and NCLH’s market‑share growth rates, especially if Princess can sustain higher on‑board spend per passenger (the Sphere‑Class ships historically post a 5‑6 % premium to the group average).

Trading implications

• Long CCL (Princess Cruises) – the capacity expansion is priced in at a discount relative to the forward‑looking earnings uplift. A 2‑3 % upside in the next 3‑6 months is plausible if the market still under‑weights the incremental RevPAR upside. Target the $15‑$17 range (≈ 10 % above the current level) with a 3‑6 month horizon.
  
• Short‑neutral on RCI/NCLH – the incremental capacity for Royal Caribbean and Norwegian is modest, so any price‑reaction to Princess’s new ship will be muted. Expect RCL to hold near‑term, while NCLH could see a slight 0.5 % dip if investors re‑price the competitive pressure on its 2025‑26 earnings.
  
• Watch macro & supply‑chain cues – a slowdown in discretionary travel or a ship‑yard bottleneck could blunt the upside. Conversely, a strong US consumer‑confidence read (e.g., CPI, retail‑sales beat) would reinforce the upside thesis for Princess and keep the CCL rally intact.
  

In short, the Star Princess gives Princess Cruises a meaningful capacity edge that should erode a slice of Royal Caribbean’s and Norwegian’s market‑share growth, supporting a bullish stance on CCL while keeping RCI and NCLH relatively flat in the near term.