What is the expected impact on the stock price on the ex‑dividend date (August 29, 2025)?

Expected price move on the ex‑dividend date (29 Aug 2025)

When a REIT goes ex‑dividend, the theoretical “fair‑value” adjustment is a drop roughly equal to the cash distribution per unit – in this case ≈ C$0.13. Given CAPREIT’s current trading range (≈ C$10–C$11 per unit over the past month) the dividend represents ~1.2 % of the price, so a modest, mechanically‑driven decline of that magnitude is expected at market open on the ex‑date. Historically CAPREIT’s shares have closed within 0.8 %–1.5 % of the dividend amount, as investors price‑adjust for the loss of accrued interest while the underlying portfolio value remains unchanged.

Trading implications

- Short‑term bias: If the stock is trading near a short‑term support level (e.g., the 20‑day EMA around C$10.30) the ex‑dividend pull‑back could test that floor, offering a potential buying opportunity for dividend‑capture traders who are comfortable holding through the post‑distribution settlement (the cash is paid 17 days later).

- Risk management: In a broadly risk‑off environment (e.g., rising rates or a weakening Canadian housing market), the price drop could be slightly larger than the dividend amount as investors re‑price forward‑looking REIT yields. Set a stop‑loss just below the adjusted support (≈ C$10.10) to guard against a deeper sell‑off.

- Long‑term view: For buy‑and‑hold investors, the ex‑date dip is largely temporary; the dividend adds to the total return and the REIT’s net asset value remains intact. Maintaining exposure through the payout date is advisable unless the price breaches a key technical breakdown (e.g., below the 50‑day SMA).

Actionable take‑away: Expect a ~C$0.13 (≈1 %) decline on 29 Aug. If the stock holds above the adjusted support, consider a modest entry to capture the upcoming C$0.13 cash distribution and potential upside as the price rebounds after the ex‑date. Conversely, tighten risk controls if broader market stress pushes the move beyond the dividend‑size adjustment.