Are there any macro‑economic or regulatory risks (e.g., hashrate concentration, energy policy changes in key mining regions) that could impact Canaan's growth trajectory?

Macro‑economic & regulatory backdrop

Canaan’s Q2 2025 results show a spectacular 39 % YoY revenue jump, buoyed by a 201 % surge in Bitcoin‑miner sales and a record‑high Bitcoin treasury. However, the upside is tightly linked to the broader mining ecosystem, which is still exposed to two key macro‑regulatory headwinds:

1. Hashrate concentration & geographic policy shifts – Over 70 % of global Bitcoin hashrate remains in China, the United States, and Kazakhstan. Any tightening of electricity tariffs, carbon‑pricing rules, or outright bans in these jurisdictions (e.g., China’s recent “energy‑saving” directives, U.S. state‑level renewable‑energy mandates, or Kazakhstan’s recent power‑grid curtailments) can force miners to shut down rigs or relocate to higher‑cost locations. A sudden drop in regional hashrate would compress demand for Canaan’s ASICs, slowing the company’s growth despite its strong order backlog.

2. Energy‑policy volatility – Bitcoin mining is energy‑intensive, and regulators in key mining hubs are increasingly scrutinising grid usage. In the EU and North America, proposals to classify mining as a “high‑carbon” activity could trigger higher grid fees or limit access to subsidised renewable power. Conversely, the U.S. Inflation‑Reduction Act and several state‑level incentives for renewable‑powered mining could expand demand for more efficient, lower‑watts‑per‑GH/s hardware—benefiting Canaan if it can deliver the next‑generation, energy‑optimized chips.

Trading implications

• Bull‑case: If the industry continues to shift toward renewable‑heavy jurisdictions (e.g., U.S. and Canada) and policy incentives stay favorable, Canaan’s revenue growth could sustain, justifying a long‑biased stance on CAN with a target of 12‑15 % upside over the next 3‑6 months, especially if Bitcoin price remains above $30k and the company clears its upcoming product roadmap milestones.
• Bear‑case: A tightening of energy policy in China or Kazakhstan, or a rapid drop in global hashrate due to regulatory crackdowns, would curtail miner capex and could trigger a short‑biased reaction. Watch for any new announcements from the Chinese State Grid, U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), or Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy; a negative surprise would likely push CAN’s price back toward the 10‑day moving‑average support (~$5.00).

Actionable watch‑list:

- Policy triggers: Chinese “grid‑stability” notices, U.S. state renewable‑energy incentives, Kazakhstan power‑allocation reforms.

- Macro data: Global Bitcoin hashrate trends (GH/s) and electricity‑price indices in the top three mining regions.

- Technical cue: If CAN breaks above its 20‑day EMA (~$6.20) on strong volume, it may signal the market is pricing in a resilient mining demand outlook; a breach below the 20‑day EMA with falling volume could foreshadow a pull‑back.

In short, Canaan’s growth is fundamentally sound, but macro‑energy and regulatory dynamics in the mining hot‑beds remain the primary risk vectors that traders should monitor closely.