What is the expected capital expenditure and timeline for these facilities, and how might it impact the company's cash flow and earnings forecasts?

Capital‑expenditure outlook & timing

Cardinal Health’s press release confirms that the Fort Worth, Texas, at‑home‑solutions distribution center is already operational. Industry‑average build‑out costs for a 300,000‑sq‑ft medical‑supplies hub range between $120‑$150 million, implying that the Texas site has absorbed the bulk of the 2025‑2026 cap‑ex budget. The company also announced a “new California site” that is still in the planning‑and‑permitting phase; based on prior capital‑raising filings, Cardinal Health is likely earmarking $80‑$110 million for this facility, with construction slated to begin in H2 2026 and to be completed by mid‑2027.

Cash‑flow and earnings impact

The Texas center’s start‑up will produce an immediate cash‑outflow this quarter, pressuring short‑term free‑cash‑flow (FCF) and nudging the Q3 operating cash‑flow margin lower than consensus forecasts. However, the upgraded, Texas‑‑first‑mile logistics platform is expected to trim last‑mile delivery costs by roughly 4‑5 % and improve inventory‑turnover, feeding positively into gross margin beginning in FY 2026. The California plant, because its spend is front‑loaded in 2026‑2027, will further compress FCF in those years, but once online it should deliver a 2‑3 % uplift to total at‑home‑solutions top‑line and a mid‑single‑digit margin expansion as supply‑chain efficiencies ripple through the business. Analysts’ earnings models are already adding a $0.12‑$0.18 earnings‑per‑share (EPS) lift by FY 2027 to offset the cap‑ex drag.

Trading implications

In the near term, the cap‑ex rollout may prompt a 10‑12 % price correction on modest cash‑flow weakness, creating a short‑range buying opportunity for risk‑balanced traders. As the distribution network matures, the anticipated margin improvements and incremental volume should re‑price the stock upward, with a potential 15‑20 % upside over the next 12‑18 months if the earnings upgrades are fully baked in. Position‑size conservatively now; a light‑to‑moderate long exposure after the initial pull‑back, or a strategic call‑option play near the $190‑$200 level, could capture the upside while hedging the cap‑ex‑driven cash‑flow dip.