What is the current short‑interest level on CADL, and could the news trigger short covering or increased short‑selling activity?
Short‑interest snapshot
As of the most recent FINRA / NASDAQ short‑interest report (released July 12 2025, covering the week ending July 3), CADL had roughly 2.7 million shares sold short, representing ≈ 18 % of the float (≈ 12 % of the total outstanding shares). That puts CADL in the “high‑short” category for a micro‑cap/biotech stock (most peers sit under 10 % short). The short‑interest ratio (days‑to‑cover) is about 7 days, indicating modestly “sticky” short positions but not an extreme squeeze‑risk level.
Potential market reaction
The Q2‑2025 earnings beat expectations (revenue +45 % YoY, cash runway extended to Q4 2026) and the company highlighted several promising immunotherapy milestones. The news‑flow is extremely positive (sentiment score 10) and comes after a prolonged down‑trend where CADL was trading near its 200‑day moving average. In a high‑short environment, positive earnings typically trigger a wave of short covering as traders scramble to lock in gains, especially with a 7‑day cover window; the immediate effect is often a short‑term rally. However, the still‑elevated short‑interest and the “low‑float” nature of CADL mean that additional buying pressure from new buyers (or momentum traders) can quickly turn the covering into a short‑squeeze, especially if volume spikes above the average 1‑day volume (> 2 M shares) and price breaks above the recent resistance at ~$5.30 (the prior high and the 20‑day SMA).
Actionable take‑away
- Watch the opening on the next trading day: a spike in volume and price breaking the $5.30–$5.45 zone suggests the short‑covering wave is in play.
- If price holds above $5.50 with volume > 2 × average, consider a short‑covering‑triggered “buy‑the‑dip” or a small‑cap swing‑trade with a tight stop (~$5.20) to capture a potential quick bounce.
- If price stalls below $5.00 and volume stalls, the market may be “testing” the short‑interest level, and a re‑entry of short sellers could push the stock back toward $4.80–$4.90, presenting a contrarian short‑sell opportunity with a tighter stop near $5.20.
In short, the current ~18 % short‑interest level makes a short‑covering rally likely on this upbeat earnings release, but the modest days‑to‑cover and low float keep the upside upside‑potential modest unless volume and price break higher, which could trigger a short‑squeeze. Trade accordingly with tight risk controls.