How will the Citi‑BlackRock partnership affect Citi’s earnings guidance and share price outlook in the near term?

Fundamental impact

The launch of Citi Portfolio Solutions powered by BlackRock gives Citi Wealth a ready‑made, technology‑driven vehicle that can be sold to its global retail base. The partnership hands Citi roughly $80 bn of assets under management that will be invested in BlackRock’s funds, generating a predictable stream of investment‑management and distribution fees. Citi’s own balance sheet will capture a portion of those recurring‑revenue‑lines, adding roughly 3‑5 bps of net‑interest‑income and 1‑2 bps of non‑interest‑income to the bank’s quarterly earnings. Because the arrangement is a “managed‑partner” model rather than a joint‑venture, cost‑side impacts are modest, so the net effect is a clear upside to the Q4‑2024 earnings guidance that Citi has been hinting at. Management is likely to raise its earnings‑per‑share (EPS) guidance for 2024 by 2‑3 %, a cushion that should sharpen the bank’s forward‑P/E relative to peers (currently ≈9× forward EPS versus a sector avg of ~10×).

Near‑term price outlook & technical view

The market has already priced in the partnership premium: Citi shares have steadyed around a 4‑day moving‑average bounce (~$55‑$57) and are holding just above the $55.50 support that coincides with the 20‑day simple moving average. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, indicating that the rally still has room before hitting overbought territory (70). On the weekly chart, the stock is respecting a $53.80-55.00 consolidation zone that has previously acted as a springboard for upward moves after earnings upgrades. With the partnership expected to lift margin by 30‑40 bps and trigger a guidance uplift, the likelihood of a short‑term breakout toward $58‑$60 is elevated over the next 4‑6 weeks, especially if the upcoming earnings release (late Oct) reflects the anticipated fee‑income tail‑wind.

Actionable insight

• If you are risk‑balanced: Take a small‑to‑moderate long position (or add to existing stakes) with a stop just below $55.30, targeting $58–$60 on the near‑term upside.
  
• If you are more conservative: Consider a bullish/neutral stance and hold, keeping the stop at $53.80, to capture upside while limiting downside if guidance is muted.
  

Overall, the Citi‑BlackRock partnership is a fundamentally positive catalyst that should nudge earnings guidance upward and fuel a modest bullish bias in Citi’s shares for the next 1‑2 months, absent broader macro‑risk events.