What macro factors are driving this liquidation wave and how likely are they to persist?

Macro drivers of the wave:

The liquidation surge is being powered primarily by a confluence of risk‑off macro forces. First, the Federal Reserve’s tighter‑than‑expected monetary stance—reflected in higher‑for‑longer rates and the latest “no‑cut” guidance—has squeezed liquidity across all leveraged assets, making long crypto positions vulnerable to even modest pull‑backs. Second, the resurgence of banking‑sector stress (e.g., tightening credit conditions after recent regional‑bank failures) has revived a “flight‑to‑quality” mindset, prompting investors to unwind high‑beta exposure such as BTC. Third, weaker macro data (softening US payrolls, slower PMI readings, and a modest dip in consumer confidence) have reinforced expectations of a prolonged slowdown, further eroding risk appetite. Together, these factors have shifted the macro‑environment from “crypto‑boom” to a classic risk‑off regime, triggering $500 m+ of long liquidations as margin calls hit traders who entered on the back of the previous record‑high rally.

Persistence outlook & trading implications:

The underlying macro backdrop is unlikely to reverse in the short term. The Fed’s rate‑curve outlook remains hawkish, and any additional banking‑sector shock would deepen risk aversion. Moreover, upcoming macro releases—core CPI, ISM manufacturing, and the first‑quarter GDP estimate—are all positioned to either confirm or worsen the slowdown narrative. Until we see a clear signal of easing monetary policy or a decisive rebound in risk sentiment, the downside bias for Bitcoin should remain intact. Traders should therefore protect long exposure (tighten stop‑losses around the $118k–$120k resistance zone) and consider short‑bias strategies that target the next technical support around $107k–$110k, while keeping an eye on macro data releases for potential swing‑trade opportunities. A breakout above the $120k ceiling on solid macro‑positive news could temporarily reverse the liquidation flow, but the probability of such a catalyst within the next 1‑2 weeks remains modest.