What changes in procurement and technology strategy can we expect, and how might they affect operational margins?

Procurement & Technology Outlook

Boliden’s creation of a combined Strategy‑CTO‑Procurement EVP signals a shift from a siloed, cost‑center view of buying to a value‑creation engine. Expect a tighter, data‑driven sourcing framework that leans on advanced analytics, AI‑based demand forecasting and digital twins of the supply chain. The mandate will likely push the group toward longer‑term contracts with key raw‑material suppliers (copper, zinc, gold) and a greater emphasis on sustainability‑linked procurement (e.g., recycled metals, low‑carbon logistics). On the technology side, the new CTO will accelerate automation in the mines and smelters, expand predictive‑maintenance platforms, and roll out edge‑computing for real‑time process optimisation. These moves should curb input‑price volatility, trim energy consumption and lift overall plant uptime.

Impact on Operational Margins & Trading Implications

If the procurement reforms succeed, input‑cost savings of 2‑4 % of total cost of sales are realistic, while digital‑automation gains could add another 1‑2 % to EBITDA margins through higher throughput and lower downtime. In the near‑term, the market may price in a modest margin expansion (≈150‑200 bps) as analysts update Boliden’s cost‑structure assumptions. Technically, BOL shares have been respecting the 50‑day EMA at SEK 240 and are testing the ascending 200‑day trendline near SEK 260; a breakout above SEK 270 would confirm the bullish narrative, while a breach of the 50‑EMA could signal that execution risk is still priced in.

Actionable Take‑away

Maintain a long bias on BOL, targeting a 10‑12 % upside over the next 6‑9 months, with a stop just below SEK 235 (the recent swing low). Watch the Q3 earnings call for concrete procurement‑cost guidance and the first‑quarter capital‑expenditure rollout of the new automation platform; a clear margin‑improvement roadmap should reinforce the trade, whereas delays or higher‑than‑expected capex could warrant a defensive trim.