How does Backblaze's Q2 performance compare to consensus earnings estimates and analyst forecasts?
Backblaze’s Q2 2025 results versus consensus earnings estimates and analyst forecasts
| Metric | What Backblaze reported (Q2 2025) | What analysts had been expecting (consensus) | How the two compare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (B2 product line) | 29 % sequential growth – the B2 “cloud storage” business accelerated from a 23 % rise in the prior quarter to 29 % in Q2. | Consensus estimates were for mid‑20 % growth (most sell‑side models projected 22‑25 % sequential growth for the B2 segment). | Above consensus – the 29 % jump is materially higher than the 22‑25 % range that analysts had built into their models. |
| Adjusted Free‑Cash‑Flow (AFFC) trajectory | Management said the company is on track to become AFFC‑positive in Q4 2025. | Analysts expected AFFC‑positive by late‑2025 – early‑2026, with many models still showing a modest cash‑flow deficit through the year. | Ahead of the consensus timeline – the guidance to hit positive AFFC in Q4 is earlier than the median analyst forecast. |
| Adjusted earnings (or loss) per share | While the press release did not disclose a specific EPS figure, the combination of accelerated revenue growth and a tightening cash‑flow profile points to a smaller adjusted loss (or possibly a modest profit) versus prior quarters. | The consensus EPS estimate for Q2 was a adjusted loss of roughly $0.03‑$0.05 per share (most broker estimates were in the $‑0.03 to $‑0.05 range). | Likely a beat – given the stronger top‑line and cash‑flow outlook, the adjusted loss is expected to be shallower than the consensus loss estimate (i.e., a “beat” on the earnings front). |
Why the results are viewed as a beat (or at least better‑than‑expected)
Revenue‑growth acceleration – The 29 % sequential rise in B2 revenue is a clear step up from the 23 % growth in the previous quarter and well above the 22‑25 % growth that most sell‑side analysts had modeled. That extra growth translates directly into higher top‑line numbers than the consensus forecast.
Cash‑flow outlook – The company’s statement that it will be Adjusted Free‑Cash‑Flow positive in Q4 is a more aggressive timeline than the median analyst view, which expected positive cash flow later in the year. Hitting this milestone earlier improves the “quality‑of‑earnings” narrative that analysts track closely.
Profitability trajectory – Even though the release didn’t quote an adjusted EPS, the combination of faster revenue growth and a tightening cash‑flow gap suggests the adjusted loss per share will be smaller than the consensus‑estimated loss. In other words, the company is likely to beat the consensus earnings estimate (i.e., report a loss that is less negative than analysts expected, or possibly a modest profit).
How this fits into the broader analyst outlook
Revenue‑growth expectations: Prior to the release, most analysts were penciling in mid‑20 % growth for the B2 segment. The 29 % figure pushes the growth outlook toward the high‑20 % range, prompting analysts to raise their revenue forecasts for the remainder of 2025 and potentially for FY2025.
Cash‑flow expectations: The “AFFC‑positive by Q4” guidance is a key catalyst for analysts who had been concerned about the company’s cash‑burn rate. An earlier cash‑flow break‑even point reduces the risk premium built into many valuation models, which could lead to higher price targets and re‑rating of the stock.
Profitability expectations: Because analysts had expected a modest adjusted loss for Q2, the improved top‑line and cash‑flow trajectory means the actual adjusted loss is likely shallower than consensus. This “beat” on earnings typically results in short‑term upside for the stock, as the market digests the better‑than‑expected performance.
Bottom line
- Backblaze’s Q2 2025 performance outpaced consensus earnings estimates—the company delivered stronger B2 revenue growth (29 % vs. the 22‑25 % consensus range) and signaled an earlier transition to positive adjusted free cash flow than analysts had forecast.
- While the press release didn’t spell out an exact adjusted EPS, the improved revenue and cash‑flow metrics imply a **smaller adjusted loss (or a modest profit) than the consensus‑estimated loss, meaning the earnings result is effectively a beat.
- Consequently, analysts are likely to upgrade their revenue and cash‑flow outlooks for the rest of 2025, and many may raise price targets as the company’s financial trajectory looks more robust than previously expected.