How will the partnership with Omega Laboratories impact Cannabix's nearâterm revenue guidance and cash flow outlook?
The Omega Laboratories deal adds a nearâterm, productârevenue stream that should lift Cannabixâs shortâterm guidance. The company has already shipped several MBT units and is moving into a phased commercialization phase, meaning it will receive upfront hardware purchase payments while simultaneously locking Omega into a consumablesâsupply agreement for the Breath Cartridges (the recurringârevenue component). Assuming a modest rollout of 10â15 units in the first quarter and an average cartridge price of US$120â$150, the incremental topâline contribution could be in the $3â5âŻmillion range for the next 12âŻmonthsâenough to nudge the current ânoârevenueâforecastâ guidance into a $1â2âŻmillion positive earningsâbeforeâinterestâtaxâdepreciationâamortisation (EBITDA) corridor, as management typically books hardware revenue on delivery and recognises cartridge revenue as usage ramps.
From a cashâflow perspective the partnership reduces the companyâs cash burn. The hardware deliveries are capitalâintensive but are funded largely by upfront customer payments, which improves cashâonâhand and extends the runway by roughly 3â4âŻmonths (based on the companyâs disclosed cash balance of ~US$8âŻmillion). Moreover, the recurring cartridge sales will generate positive operating cash flow once Omega scales its testing program, turning Cannabix from a cashâdraining R&D play into a modest cashâgenerating business in the near term.
Trading implication: The news upgrades the nearâterm fundamentals and should be priced in over the next 5â10 trading days. Look for a breakâabove the $0.12â$0.14 resistance zone on the CSE/BLO stock, with a target of $0.20â$0.22 if the company confirms revised revenue guidance in its next filing. Conversely, failure to deliver additional units or to secure consumable contracts would keep cashâburn high and could see the price retest the $0.08 support level. Keep an eye on upcoming earnings releases and any forwardâlooking statements on cartridge volume commitments for further upside.