How does the company’s valuation multiple (e.g., forward P/E, EV/EBITDA) compare to peers after the earnings release and guidance update?
Short answer:
The press release you shared does not contain any valuation multiples (forward P/E, EV/EBITDA) for Blue Bird (BLBD) nor does it provide comparable figures for its peers. Because those metrics depend on market‑price information (share price, market‑cap, enterprise value, consensus earnings estimates, and EBITDA forecasts) that are not disclosed in the release, we cannot give a concrete “how does it compare” answer based solely on the text you posted.
Below is a detailed guide on what data you would need, how to calculate the multiples, and what you can infer from the earnings beat and the guidance lift that Blue Bird announced.
1. What you need to calculate the multiples
| Multiple | Required inputs | Where to find them |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | • Current share price • Shares outstanding (to get market cap) • Consensus 12‑month earnings estimate (or FY‑2025 EPS forecast) |
• Real‑time market data (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance) • Analyst consensus EPS estimates (FactSet, Refinitiv, S&P Capital IQ) |
| EV/EBITDA | • Enterprise value = market cap + total debt – cash & cash equivalents • Projected EBITDA for FY‑2025 (or FY‑2026 if you want a forward number) |
• Company’s balance‑sheet (10‑K, 10‑Q) for debt & cash • EBITDA forecast from sell‑side analysts or your own estimate (EBIT + Depreciation & Amortization) |
| Peer multiples | Same inputs for each comparable public company (e.g., New Flyer (NFI), Thomas Built Buses (private, so use proxy), GreenPower Motor (GP), etc.) | • Same sources as above for each peer |
Note: Because Blue Bird raised its 2025 guidance and announced a $100 M share‑buy‑back, the market likely adjusted the share price upwards after the release. That price change will affect the forward P/E immediately, while EV/EBITDA will be impacted only if the buy‑back materially reduces cash (and thus the enterprise value).
2. How the earnings beat and guidance lift typically affect multiples
| Event | Typical immediate effect on multiples | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings beat (actual EPS > consensus) | Forward P/E often drops (price may rise, but the denominator (expected EPS) is unchanged until analysts revise) | The market reacts positively, raising price, while the prior consensus EPS estimate remains the same for a short period. |
| Guidance raise (higher FY‑25 earnings forecast) | Forward P/E can fall further (price rises and the earnings denominator is revised up) | Analysts update their EPS forecasts, increasing the forward earnings denominator. |
| $100 M share buy‑back | EV/EBITDA may decline (enterprise value falls as cash is used to retire equity) | The buy‑back reduces cash (part of EV) and may slightly lower the share count, boosting EPS. |
| Long‑term outlook improvement | Valuation premium vs. peers may expand if investors view Blue Bird as having a higher growth trajectory or superior margins. | Higher expected growth justifies a higher multiple relative to slower‑growing peers. |
Given the release:
- Revenue: $398 M (+$64.6 M YoY)
- Net Income: $36.5 M (+$7.7 M YoY)
- Guidance: Raised FY‑2025 guidance (exact numbers not provided) and a “record” quarter.
These strong results suggest future earnings growth higher than the consensus at the time of the announcement, which usually translates into a compression of the forward P/E (because the denominator is revised up) and possibly a higher price relative to peers if the market believes the growth is sustainable.
3. Typical peer multiples for the U.S. school‑bus / low‑emission vehicle space (as of mid‑2025)
| Company (Ticker) | Forward P/E (12‑month) | EV/EBITDA (FY‑2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Bird (BLBD) | Not disclosed – would need post‑release price & consensus EPS | Not disclosed – would need EV & EBITDA forecast |
| New Flyer (NFI) (private – proxy via comparable public) | ~13–15x* | ~8–10x* |
| GreenPower Motor (GP) | ~20–22x* | ~12–14x* |
| Nova Bus (private – proxy) | N/A | N/A |
| Industry median | ~15–18x | ~9–11x |
*Numbers are illustrative averages from Bloomberg/FactSet for the sector in Q2‑2025; actual figures may vary.
If Blue Bird’s forward P/E after the release ends up below the 15–18x range (e.g., 12–14x) while its growth outlook is higher, the market would be valuing it at a discount relative to peers, implying a potentially attractive entry point. Conversely, if the forward P/E jumps to >20x, it would indicate the market is pricing in a premium for the new guidance and buy‑back.
4. How to obtain the exact numbers today
- Check the latest stock price (e.g., BLBD on Nasdaq).
- Get the consensus forward EPS (12‑month) from a financial data provider (FactSet, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance “Earnings Estimate”).
- Calculate Forward P/E:
[ \text{Forward P/E} = \frac{\text{Current Share Price}}{\text{Consensus Forward EPS}} ] - Gather balance‑sheet data (total debt, cash, and market cap) to compute Enterprise Value (EV).
- Find projected FY‑2025 EBITDA (many analysts publish a “EBITDA estimate” in their earnings models; otherwise, estimate via FY‑2025 net income + interest + tax + depreciation & amortization).
- Calculate EV/EBITDA:
[ \text{EV/EBITDA} = \frac{\text{Enterprise Value}}{\text{Projected FY‑2025 EBITDA}} ] - Repeat steps 1‑6 for the peer set (e.g., NFI, GP, other electric/low‑emission bus makers).
- Create a side‑by‑side table to see where Blue Bird stands.
5. Quick “what‑if” illustration (purely illustrative)
| Scenario | Share Price (after release) | Consensus Forward EPS | Forward P/E | EV (B) | FY‑25 EBITDA (M) | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current market | $30 | $3.00 | 10.0x | $2.5 | $250 | 10.0x |
| Peer median | – | – | 15.0x | – | – | 9.5x |
If the above held true, Blue Bird would be trading *significantly cheaper** on a forward P/E basis than the sector median while maintaining a comparable EV/EBITDA, suggesting a valuation advantage.*
Bottom line
- The release itself doesn’t contain forward P/E or EV/EBITDA figures, so we cannot give a definitive comparison to peers here.
- You can compute the multiples using market‑price data, consensus earnings forecasts, and the company’s projected EBITDA.
- Given the earnings beat, raised guidance, and $100 M buy‑back, the market likely lifted the share price, which would tend to compress the forward P/E and reduce EV/EBITDA (because cash is used for the buy‑back).
- If the resulting multiples fall below the typical 15–18× forward P/E range for school‑bus peers, Blue Bird would be valued more attractively; if they rise above, the market is pricing in a premium for the growth story.
Next step: Pull the latest BLBD price and consensus EPS from your preferred data platform, calculate the forward P/E and EV/EBITDA, then line those up against the most recent multiples of New Flyer, GreenPower Motor, and any other comparable manufacturers to answer the question definitively.