How does BNY's Q3 outlook compare to its main competitors such as State Street and JPMorgan?

Fundamental comparison

BNY Mellon’s Q3‑2025 outlook is still being framed by the company’s pre‑release commentary, but the market is already pricing in a modest earnings beat‑and‑raise scenario (≈3‑4% YoY growth in net revenue, modest margin expansion as cost‑control measures continue). By contrast, State Street has been projecting a stronger upside in its Q3 guidance, buoyed by a 7% rise in asset‑management inflows and a higher‑than‑expected net‑interest margin (NIM) lift from its recent loan‑portfolio re‑balancing. JPMorgan is on a much larger growth trajectory, with analysts expecting a double‑digit increase in net revenue (≈9‑10% YoY) driven by robust trading volumes, a 12‑month streak of record‑high credit‑card spend, and a 150‑basis‑point NIM expansion. In short, BNY’s growth rate sits between the “steady‑but‑modest” trajectory of a mid‑tier custodian and the “high‑growth” dynamics of the two peers.

Technical and market dynamics

On the chart, BNY’s shares have been trading in a tight 20‑day range (≈$33.80‑$34.60) since the earnings‑preview release, with the 20‑day SMA acting as resistance. The RSI is hovering around 48, indicating no clear momentum bias. State Street (ticker “STT”) has broken above its 50‑day EMA on a bullish breakout, while JPMorgan (ticker “JPM”) remains in a well‑established uptrend, holding above its 200‑day moving average and generating a bullish MACD crossover. The relative strength index (RSI) for STT is in the 60s and for JPM in the 70s, reflecting stronger upside momentum versus BNY.

Actionable trading view

• BNY (BK): With the earnings call scheduled for Oct 16, the stock is likely to experience a short‑term volatility spike. Until clearer guidance emerges, a tight range‑bound strategy (e.g., buying the dip near $33.80 and selling the rally near $34.60) or a short‑term straddle around the earnings date can capture the expected move. If BNY’s guidance signals a stronger inflow trend or margin expansion, a breakout above $34.60 could trigger a short‑term upside swing; otherwise, a breach below $33.80 may open a modest downside channel.

• Relative positioning: For a portfolio tilt toward higher‑growth custodians, State Street and JPMorgan present a more aggressive upside potential. If you are risk‑averse, maintain a neutral exposure to BNY while allocating a larger portion to JPM (trend‑following) and a smaller, opportunistic position in STT (breakout‑play). Conversely, if you anticipate BNY’s guidance to highlight a surprise in cash‑management fees or a new technology platform, a post‑earnings breakout above $34.60 could be a catalyst for a short‑term long entry.