Guidance recap
In the FY 2025 earnings release Bioceres disclosed FY 2026 guidance that centers on a mid‑teens revenue growth trajectory. Management projects FY 2026 top‑line of $120 million‑$130 million, roughly a 15%‑18% increase versus FY 2025, driven by the rollout of its next‑generation bio‑actives and the expansion of its North‑American distribution footprint. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $20 million‑$22 million, implying an EBITDA margin of ≈16%‑18%, a modest expansion from the current year. The company also expects free cash flow to turn positive, with cash‑from‑operations in the $5 million‑$8 million range, and reiterates its goal of maintaining a cash‑burn runway of at least 12 months.
Valuation impact
The upgraded FY 2026 top‑line and margin outlook lifts the DCF terminal value by roughly 10%‑15%, depending on the discount rate (8%‑10%) and terminal growth assumptions (2%‑3%). Applying the new cash‑flow forecasts to our existing model adds ≈$1.5 billion‑$2.0 billion of enterprise value, translating to a $2.80‑$3.10 target price per share (up ~20% from the pre‑release consensus of $2.35). The higher margin also supports a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 12‑13×, in line with the premium tier of peer agritech companies, versus the 9‑10× range we were using before. Sensitivity to the cash‑conversion timeline is the key residual risk; if free cash flow materializes later than FY 2026, the upside shrinks back toward the prior target.
Trading implications
Technically, Bioceres is holding just above its $2.70 30‑day SMA and has respected a $2.55–$2.60 support zone since the earnings release. A break above the $2.80–$2.85 resistance cluster would signal the market internalizing the revised valuation and could trigger a short‑term rally toward $3.10–$3.20. Given the improved fundamentals, a buy‑on‑dip strategy at $2.55‑$2.65 with a stop‑loss around $2.40 aligns the risk/reward profile (~1:3). Conversely, if the stock fails to breach $2.80 and shows declining volume, a partial profit‑take at $2.75 and a tighter stop at $2.60 would preserve capital while we wait for further catalyst confirmation (e.g., product launch data or Q1 2026 cash‑flow results).