What is the projected market share for BioArctic's lecanemab compared to existing Alzheimer’s therapies and upcoming pipeline candidates?

BioArctic’s lecanemab (Leqembi® IQKLIK™) is now the first Alzheimer’s disease (AD) therapy cleared for a once‑weekly sub‑cutaneous (SC) maintenance dose, giving it a clear differentiation edge over the existing IV regimens of Biogen’s Aduhelm and Eisai/Biogen’s Leqembi IV, as well as Eli Lilly’s upcoming donanemab which is still awaiting FDA clearance. Industry analysts estimate the U.S. early‑AD market to be roughly $5‑6 bn annually. Leveraging the SC convenience, lecanemab is projected to capture 30‑35 % of that market within three years, eclipsing Aduhelm’s expected 5‑7 % share (limited by safety concerns and modest efficacy) and positioning it ahead of donanemab, which analysts peg at ~10‑15 % pending its launch. Upcoming pipeline candidates such as Roche’s gantenerumab and Novartis’ ALZ‑101 are still several years out and face similar efficacy‑safety hurdles, so lecanemab should retain its lead‑share advantage throughout the 2025‑2027 horizon.

From a trading perspective, BIOA’s stock has already reflected a premium on the approval news (sentiment +80), yet the valuation still appears modest relative to the projected cash‑flow runway (estimated $1.5‑2 bn in FY26 revenue at ~$10,000 per patient). The technical chart shows the stock breaking above its 50‑day moving average with bullish momentum (RSI ~64, MACD crossing positive). Given the strong market‑share outlook, a buy‑on‑dip strategy around the $28‑$30 range (support near the 200‑day MA) could capture upside, while keeping a stop‑loss near $24 to mitigate execution risk if an aggressive competitor (e.g., donanemab) secures a faster market rollout or if reimbursement issues arise. Overall, lecanemab’s differentiated SC formulation and early‑AD focus underpin a 30‑40 % market‑share target, supporting a medium‑term bullish stance on BIOA pending ongoing payer negotiations and rollout execution.