What are the chances of the lawsuit being dismissed or settled quickly versus a prolonged legal battle?

Legal‑timeline outlook

A securities‑class‑action against a mid‑cap biotech like Biohaven (NYSE: BH​VN) typically moves at a measured pace. Most of these cases first go through a “motion to dismiss” stage, where the plaintiff must prove that the complaint alleges “facts‑to‑prove” a material misstatement. Because the filing is recent (mid‑August) and the complaint still needs to survive the early 12‑month “motion‑to‑dismiss” deadline, the probability of a quick dismissal is modest—historically, only about 30‑35 % of similar biotech suits are thrown out within the first 3‑4 months.

Conversely, the settlement‑or‑prolonged‑battle path is more common. If the plaintiff can point to a specific disclosure failure (e.g., a missed safety‑data update or a misleading press release), the case often proceeds to discovery, which can extend 12‑18 months or longer. Given the negative sentiment (‑70) and the fact that the class definition is already broad (“investors who were…”), the likelihood of a settlement or extended litigation is roughly 65‑70 %.

Trading implications

• Short‑term: Expect the stock to stay under pressure as the market prices in the legal risk. The current technical picture—trading below the 20‑day SMA, with the 10‑day EMA still below the 50‑day SMA—supports a near‑term downside bias.
  
• If the case is dismissed early (within 3 months): The catalyst could trigger a short‑cover rally, pushing BHVN back toward its 50‑day SMA (~$6.80) and possibly testing the $7.00 resistance level.
  
• If the case drags on or heads toward settlement: The downside pressure will likely persist, keeping the stock in the $5.50‑$6.30 range and inviting short‑position accumulation.
  

Actionable take‑away: Until a motion‑to‑dismiss ruling is issued, keep a modest short position or hedge long exposure. A rapid dismissal would be a bullish surprise; a drawn‑out battle remains the more probable scenario and should be reflected in a continued bearish tilt on BHVN.