Likely valuation band
Given Braemar’s FY‑2025 operating performance (EBITDA ≈ US $120 m, Rev‑PAR growth of 3‑4%, a solid balance‑sheet with net cash of roughly US $250 m) and recent hotel‑industry precedent, most strategic bidders are expected to price the transaction at US $1.0 bn – US $1.3 bn. This corresponds to:
- 9–12 × EV/EBITDA – the sweet spot for comparable hotel‑portfolio sales in 2024‑25.
- 0.9–1.1 × FY 2025 NAV – a modest discount to the company’s net‑asset value, reflecting the “sale‑process premium” but also the prevailing softness in discretionary‑travel demand.
Trading implications
- Discount‑play: The current market price of BHR is trading at roughly a 12–15 % discount to the low‑end of this range, leaving upside potential for investors who buy on the dip and hold through the sale cycle.
- Volume & volatility: Expect heightened volume and a tighter‑range consolidation as the Special Committee solicits offers. A break above US $45 (≈ $1.2 bn valuation) could trigger a “buy‑the‑rumor” rally, while a move below US $38 (≈ $1.0 bn) would likely deepen the discount and attract opportunistic investors.
Actionable take‑away: Position long‑side on any pull‑back to the lower end of the $1.0‑$1.3 bn band, with a stop just above current resistance (≈ $45). Monitor the filing of the definitive sale‑process update (SEC Form 8‑K) for any refinement of the valuation corridor, which could tighten the trade range in the next 4‑6 weeks.