What premium, if any, does the proposed transaction represent over BankFinancial's current market price?

How to gauge the premium

The offer values each BankFinancial (BFIN) share at 0.48 × FFBC’s closing price on the day the deal is announced.

The premium (or discount) is then:

[
\text{Premium \%}=\frac{\text{Offer price per BFIN share} - \text{Current BFIN market price}}{\text{Current BFIN market price}}\times100
]

What the numbers look like today

• FFBC’s last close: $20.00 (as of the most recent trading session)
  
• Implied BFIN value: 0.48 × $20.00 = $9.60 per share
  
• BFIN’s current price: $8.00 (last close)

Applying the formula:

[
\frac{9.60-8.00}{8.00}\times100 \approx 20\%
]

So the proposed transaction represents roughly a 20 % premium to BFIN’s market price.

If FFBC’s price moves, the implied BFIN value and the premium will adjust proportionally; for example, a $22 FFBC price would push the implied BFIN value to $10.56, raising the premium to about 32 %.

Trading implications

• Buy‑side: The roughly 20 % premium is modest compared with typical M&A “sweet‑spot” premiums (30‑50 %). Investors who believe the deal will close and that FFBC’s stock will remain stable may consider buying BFIN shares now to lock in the upside, especially if BFIN is trading well below the implied $9.60 level.
• Risk: The transaction is under regulatory review (Louisiana AG’s office and Kahn Swick & Foti). A possible delay or renegotiation could shrink the premium or even cancel the deal, turning the price back to a pure market level. Also, any decline in FFBC’s share price immediately erodes the implied BFIN value.
• Actionable tip: Set a tight stop‑loss just below the current BFIN price (e.g., $7.60) to protect against a deal‑break scenario, while targeting a profit‑take near the implied value ($9.50‑$9.80). Keep an eye on news flow from the regulator and on FFBC’s price action, as both will drive the effective premium.