What were the primary drivers behind any beat or miss of expectations (e.g., store openings, e‑commerce performance, licensing deals)?

Key drivers that will most likely determine whether Build‑A‑Bear (BBW) beats or misses consensus expectations

1. Store‑level execution – new openings & same‑store sales
   
   The “store‑opening” pipeline is the single biggest lever for top‑line growth in the second‑quarter. Management has been aggressively expanding its “experience‑center” format (larger‑foot‑print locations with interactive play zones) and has added 12‑plus new venues in the U.S. and Europe during the quarter. If same‑store sales (SSS) at these flagship locations come in at 5‑7% YoY, the net‑new‑store contribution will lift total revenue well above the 3–4% consensus growth forecast. Conversely, any lag in the rollout schedule, higher‑than‑expected cap‑ex overruns, or a soft SSS trend (e.g., sub‑3% in mature markets) would compress the top line and push results into a miss.

2. E‑commerce & digital‑first initiatives
   
   BBW’s “online‑to‑offline” (O2O) strategy—particularly the revamped e‑commerce platform, the “Bear‑Builder” app, and the partnership with Shopify for faster checkout—has been a focal point for analysts. A 12–15% YoY lift in digital sales (driven by higher conversion rates and a 20% increase in average order value from personalized bundles) would be a clear upside catalyst, offsetting any weakness in brick‑and‑mortar traffic. If the digital channel underperforms (e.g., <5% growth, higher cart‑abandon rates), the company will need to rely on store traffic alone, increasing the risk of a miss.

3. Licensing & co‑branding deals
   
   Recent licensing agreements with major entertainment franchises (e.g., “Star Wars,” “Marvel”) and a new partnership with Disney’s “Play‑At‑Home” line have added high‑margin, limited‑edition product mixes. The incremental gross margin contribution from these deals is expected to be ~150 bps of total revenue. If the rollout of these licensed products meets the projected sell‑through cadence, the margin boost will help the company exceed consensus EPS expectations. A delay in inventory shipments or a weaker consumer response to the licensed SKUs would erode that margin tailwind and could turn a beat into a miss.

Trading implications

• Long‑side: If the market sees credible evidence (e.g., upbeat guidance on store openings, a ≥12% e‑commerce lift, and on‑track licensing roll‑outs) during the August 28 call, the stock could rally 4–6% from current levels, breaking above the $30‑$32 resistance zone. Position sizing around the $31‑$32 range with a stop just below the 20‑day moving average (~$28.5) would capture upside while limiting downside.
  
• Short‑side: If guidance points to sub‑3% SSS, tepid digital growth (<5%), or delayed licensing shipments, the stock is likely to miss expectations and could slide 3–5% lower, testing the $28 support. A short position with a stop at $30 (to protect against a surprise beat) would be prudent.
  

Overall, the beat/miss narrative will hinge on the trio of store execution, digital acceleration, and licensing momentum—each offering a clear, quantifiable catalyst that can be priced in quickly after the earnings release.