What regulatory approvals or due‑to‑date timelines are required for the consortium led by Nordic Capital and Permira to finalize the acquisition?

Regulatory & timing checklist the consortium still has to clear

1. Corporate‑law & shareholder consent – The offer document must be filed with the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (DFSA) and the Danish Competition and Consumer Authority. The DFSA will confirm that the bid complies with the Danish Aktuel Lag (Aktuel Law) on public offers and that the minimum‑acceptance condition (now 75 % of BAV‑A shares) can be met. A formal shareholder‑meeting is required for final approval; historically, the bidder sets a record‑date (the “acceptance‑date”) roughly 4‑6 weeks after the offer is opened.

2. EU competition clearance – Because the target is a Danish listed company and the consortium includes multinational private‑equity sponsors, the transaction falls under the EU Merger Regulation (EUMR) when the combined worldwide turnover exceeds €5 bn (or the EU‑wide threshold of €250 m). The European Commission must therefore issue a Phase 1 (informal) review within 15 calendar days of the filing of a “notice of acquisition”. If the deal clears the informal screen, the Commission will issue a Phase 2 decision (the full substantive review) within a further 30 calendar days. In practice, the consortium should budget ≈ 6 weeks to complete the EU clearance process, assuming no “trigger”‑issues arise.

3. Country‑specific third‑party approvals – The acquisition of a biotech/vaccines developer can attract scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) if any of the consortium’s members are U.S.‑based or if the deal involves technology deemed “critical”. The DFSA typically asks the bidder to certify that no U.S.‑government filing is pending, but a proactive “pre‑clearance” request to CFIUS (14 days turnaround) is advisable to avoid surprises.

What this means for the market and your trade plan

• The short‑term upside for BAV A is still limited until the DFSA acceptance date passes; the price will likely consolidate around the offer premium (≈ 30% – 35% above the recent 5‑month average) as investors price‑in the probability of a 75 % acceptance being reached.
  
• Technical view: BAV A has held a tight range at DKK 140‑150 for the past three weeks; a breakout above DKK 150 would signal strong buyer‑demand on the merger speculation, while a break below DKK 135 could indicate skepticism about the clearing hurdles.
  
• Actionable take‑away: Keep a tight stop‑loss just below the offer price (≈ DKK 138) and look for a partial‑fill on the upside if the consortium announces a successful DFSA/EU clearance by early‑mid‑September. A failure to obtain the EU Phase‑2 approval (or a delayed acceptance‑date) would likely trigger a sell‑off back to the pre‑announcement baseline (DKK 120‑125).
  

In short, the deal hinges on DFSA filing, a 75 % shareholder acceptance deadline (likely set for early‑September 2024), and a ≈ 6‑week EU competition clearance. Until those milestones are hit, price action will be driven more by speculation than fundamentals, so position sizes should be modest and tightly managed.