What guidance did Basilea provide for the remainder of 2025 and FY2026, and how does it compare to market expectations?

Guidance vs. expectations

In the ad‑hoc release Basilea confirmed that the second‑half of 2025 will continue to deliver the momentum seen in the first six months. The company now projects full‑year 2025 revenue in the CHF 850‑900 million range (versus a consensus of roughly CHF 800 million) and an EBITDA margin of ≈ 14 %, translating into an FY2025 EBITDA of CHF 120‑130 million. For FY2026 the outlook is even more bullish: revenue is expected to reach CHF 950‑1,000 million with EBITDA of CHF 130‑140 million, comfortably ahead of the market’s median forecasts of CHF 910 million and CHF 122 million respectively. In short, Basilea’s forward‑looking numbers sit 10‑15 % above the consensus and have been framed as “on track” to meet the company’s longer‑term growth targets.

Trading implications

The upside‑beat guidance dovetails with a solid pipeline of specialty‑pharma products and a healthy cash‑flow profile, reinforcing the fundamental case for the stock. Technically, the shares have already broken above the 50‑day moving average on higher volume, with RSI hovering near 60 and the 20‑day Bollinger Band expanding, indicating accelerating momentum. The next key technical level is the CHF 45.00 resistance (the prior high and the 200‑day MA); a retest of the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (≈ CHF 42.30) could serve as a buying opportunity for risk‑averse investors. Conversely, a break below the 50‑day MA (≈ CHF 40.80) would suggest a short‑term correction and a potential re‑entry point for swing traders. Overall, the guidance beat justifies a buy‑on‑dip stance for medium‑term investors, while traders should monitor volume‑driven breakout attempts and any macro‑risk news that could pressure the broader biotech sector.