Projected peak sales & market‑share assumptions
The in‑licensing announcement signals that Basilea’s new oral antibiotic is being modelled on a peak‑sale range of roughly $300 million‑$600 million once it reaches full commercialisation. Analysts typically base those figures on a 5 %‑10 % share of the global oral‑antibiotic market (which is valued at $6‑8 billion annually) and a premium pricing premium of $80‑$120 per course, reflecting the product’s activity against multidrug‑resistant pathogens and its Phase‑3‑ready status. The model assumes a 3‑year ramp‑up to market entry, followed by a 5‑year plateau before generic competition erodes volumes.
Trading implications
If Basilea can hit the mid‑point of the sales corridor ($450 million) and secure at least a 7 % market slice, the upside to the current share price could be 30‑45 % versus the consensus target of €15‑€18, given the company’s relatively low cash burn and strong balance sheet. Investors should monitor upcoming Phase‑3 data releases, the EU/US regulatory timeline, and any partnership announcements that could accelerate market penetration. A miss on the peak‑sale assumptions or a slower-than‑expected uptake would cap upside and could pressure the stock toward its 6‑month downside support around €9.5. Position size accordingly, using a tight stop just below the €9.5 level to manage downside risk while keeping exposure to the upside catalyst of a successful Phase‑3 readout.