Outlook for Q3âQ4âŻ2025 Earnings
BallyâŻCorporationâs Q2â2025 results show a mixedâbag of segment dynamics that will shape the secondâhalf earnings trajectory. The core Casinosâ&âResorts franchise is the clear growth driver â up 14.7% YoY to $393.3âŻM, buoyed by continued footâtraffic recovery, higherâpriced hotelâroom inventory and a robust sportsbook rollout. Assuming the same seasonal lift that the industry typically sees in the summerâfall window (when discretionary travel and betting volumes peak), we can reasonably expect CâR revenue to grow another 5â7% in Q3 and sustain a 4â6% YoY growth rate in Q4 (the latter supported by upcoming âBallyâs Sportsbookâ integrations in key US markets and the launch of a new resort property slated for Q4â2025).
Conversely, International Interactive (IâI) remains a drag, down 10.2% YoY to $206.1âŻM, reflecting weaker performance in the U.K.âbased online platform and a slower rollout of the new digitalâgaming suite. Unless the company accelerates its productârelease schedule or secures additional licensing deals, the IâI segment will likely continue to drag down overall revenue growth, capping the companyâwide earnings expansion to roughly 5â6% YoY for the full year. The modest 8.8% rise in U.K. online revenue offers a modest offset, but it is insufficient to offset the broader International decline.
Trading implications: The technical picture remains bullish â BALY is trading above its 20âday EMA and the 50âday moving average, with the 200âday SMA still rising, suggesting momentum is intact. Volume has been above average on the recent rally, and the stockâs RSI sits near 55 (neutral). Given the solid Q2 beat, the bullish technical bias, and the expectation of continued CâR growth, a long position with a tight stop just below the 20âday EMA (â$15â$16 depending on the current price) is warranted for investors targeting Q3âQ4 upside. Shortâterm traders can look for a breakout above the recent high (~$19) with a 2â3% profit target, while longâterm investors should consider the earningsâgrowth risk from the International segment and might hedge a portion of the position with a put spread at the Q4â2025 earnings date to protect against a potential earnings miss from the IâI segment.