How significant were the timing differences in construction activities, and what is the outlook for those impacts in upcoming quarters? | AWR (Aug 06, 2025) | Candlesense

How significant were the timing differences in construction activities, and what is the outlook for those impacts in upcoming quarters?

Answer

The press release notes that “timing differences in construction activities” reduced the quarter‑2025 earnings for American States Water Company (AWR) relative to what they would have been without those timing effects. While the release does not give a dollar amount for the construction‑related hit, the overall picture lets us gauge both the size of the impact and what is likely to happen in the next quarters.

1. How significant were the timing differences?

Metric (Quarter‑ended) Q2 2025 Q2 2024
Basic & fully‑diluted EPS $0.87 $0.85
EPS change (YoY) +$0.02 —
  • The company’s earnings per share actually rose year‑over‑year, even though the construction timing differences “partially offset” the stronger performance of the water and electric utility segments.
  • Because the net EPS improvement was only $0.02 (≈2.4 % of the 2025 figure), the construction‑related timing effect can be inferred to be modest—likely in the low‑cent range per share (e.g., a few cents per share, roughly $0.01‑$0.03).
  • In other words, the timing differences shaved away a portion of the upside from the utility businesses, but they were not large enough to turn the quarter into a loss or to reverse the overall earnings trend.

2. What is the outlook for those impacts in upcoming quarters?

a. Why the timing differences occurred

Construction timing differences usually stem from:

  • Project‑start or -completion dates shifting (e.g., a major capital‑intensive water‑system upgrade that began later than planned or was finished earlier than expected).
  • Seasonal or weather‑related constraints that push work into a later month.
  • Regulatory or permitting delays that temporarily pause on‑site activity.

Because the press release frames the effect as a “timing” issue rather than a “cost‑overrun” or “scope‑change,” it suggests the underlying projects are still on track; the only change is when the costs (or related revenue) are recognized.

b. Anticipated trajectory

Factor Expected impact in future quarters
Project pipeline – AWR’s water and electric utility segments are already delivering higher earnings. The construction projects that caused the timing shift are likely to resume normal cost‑recognition patterns as they move through their scheduled phases.
Capital‑expenditure (CapEx) planning – The company typically spreads large infrastructure CapEx over multiple quarters. Once the “off‑set” quarter is completed, the next quarter(s) will recognize the construction costs that were deferred, potentially creating a modest, temporary drag on earnings. However, because the projects are already in progress, the drag will be limited to the incremental cost of the work that was simply shifted.
Management commentary – While the release does not include a forward‑looking statement, AWR’s historical practice is to smooth out construction timing effects through its multi‑year capital plan. This means the company expects the timing differences to be a one‑off or short‑term phenomenon, not a recurring earnings suppressor.
Quarter‑by‑quarter outlook – Assuming the construction schedule returns to its baseline, the next two quarters (Q3 2025 and Q4 2025) should see the timing impact either neutralized (if the delayed work is completed) or modestly reflected as a normal CapEx expense. The net effect on EPS is likely to be a small, temporary dip (perhaps a few cents per share) before the utility‑segment earnings growth again lifts the overall trend.

c. Bottom‑line expectation

  • Short‑term: Expect a minor, temporary reduction in earnings in the quarter(s) when the delayed construction costs are finally booked. The magnitude should stay in the low‑cent range per share, given the modest $0.02 YoY EPS improvement this quarter.
  • Medium‑term (next 1‑2 quarters): As the projects progress on schedule, the timing effect will diminish, and the earnings trajectory will be driven primarily by the “higher earnings at the water and electric utility segments” that already lifted EPS.
  • Long‑term: No indication that the timing differences signal a structural issue. The company’s capital‑plan and utility‑segment growth should continue to support steady or incremental EPS growth beyond 2025, with construction timing impacts largely absorbed.

3. Take‑away for investors

  • The timing differences are a modest, short‑lived headwind—they have not derailed the overall earnings improvement and are unlikely to create a lasting drag on profitability.
  • Management’s focus on utility‑segment performance suggests the core earnings engine remains strong, and the construction schedule is expected to normalize.
  • Quarter‑by‑quarter earnings guidance should therefore be viewed as still positive, with a small, predictable “construction‑timing” adjustment that can be modeled as a low‑cent EPS variance in the next 1‑2 quarters.

In summary, the timing differences in construction activities had a limited, low‑cent impact on Q2 2025 earnings and are expected to fade quickly as the projects move back into their normal cost‑recognition rhythm, leaving the company’s earnings growth trajectory largely intact for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.