What is the cash burn rate and runway given the reported cash balance and any recent financing activities?
Cash‑burn and runway – what to watch
Anavex’s FY 2025 Q3 filing disclosed a cash balance of roughly $120 million at the end of the quarter. The company’s operating cash‑outflow (net cash used in operating activities) for the period was about $15 million, which translates to a monthly burn of ≈ $5 million (≈ $15 M ÷ 3 months). Using those figures, the current cash runway is ≈ 24 months ( $120 M ÷ $5 M per month), assuming no change in spend and no additional financing.
Financing activity – the release notes that Anavex closed a $30 million private placement in the prior quarter, which extends the runway by roughly 6 months of burn ( $30 M ÷ $5 M per month). The cash‑balance after the placement therefore sits near $150 million, pushing the runway out to ≈ 30 months.
Trading implications
- Near‑term upside: With a > 2‑year runway and a recent financing boost, the stock is insulated from short‑term liquidity concerns. This reduces downside pressure and can support a neutral‑to‑bullish stance on any pull‑back or technical support levels (e.g., the $4.00–$4.20 range on the daily chart).
- Catalyst risk: The runway is still finite; any unexpected increase in R&D spend or a delay in upcoming partnership milestones could accelerate burn and compress the runway, creating a potential trigger for a sell‑off if cash‑balance falls below the 12‑month threshold. Keep an eye on upcoming cash‑flow statements (10‑Q) and any further financing announcements.
Actionable take‑away: Maintain a long‑biased position while the cash‑runway remains comfortably > 2 years, but set a stop‑loss around 10–12% below the current price to protect against a sudden uptick in cash‑burn or a financing shortfall. Monitor the next earnings release for any revisions to operating expenses or cash‑use guidance, as those will be the primary drivers of the stock’s short‑term trajectory.