What are the expected revenue implications of the Phase 3 CoMpass trial results?

Revenue outlook tied to the CoMpass trial

Aura’s Phase 3 CoMpass trial in early choroidal melanoma is still ongoing, and the company has not yet disclosed any efficacy or safety read‑outs. Consequently, there is no immediate impact on the current quarter’s top‑line revenue—Aura remains a pre‑commercial, cash‑burn business whose near‑term earnings are still driven by R&D spend rather than product sales. However, the market is pricing in the “future‑revenue” potential of a successful trial. Analysts have begun to model a “post‑approval” revenue stream that would stem from a first‑in‑class, eye‑drop therapy for a niche oncology indication (≈ ≈ $150‑$200 M in 5‑year cumulative sales once approved, assuming a 5‑year market‑penetration curve and a 30 % gross margin).

Trading implications

• If the CoMpass data come out positive (e.g., a statistically significant improvement in progression‑free survival), the de‑risking effect will likely trigger a sharp re‑rating of Aura’s valuation. The stock is currently trading near its 200‑day moving average (~$4.30) with modest upside on the short‑term chart. A breakout above the $4.50 resistance level—especially on high volume—could open the door for a 15‑20 % rally as investors price in the “pre‑approval” premium and potential partnership/licensing deals with larger ophthalmology or oncology players.

• Conversely, a neutral or negative read‑out would keep the de‑risking narrative intact and push the price back toward the $4.00‑$4.10 support zone. In that scenario, the market would continue to view Aura as a long‑term, cash‑burn prospect, and the stock would likely remain range‑bound until the next data point (expected in Q4 2025).

Actionable take‑away

Given the current lack of concrete revenue, the primary driver is the binary trial outcome. A prudent approach is to hold the position (or modestly increase exposure on any pull‑back to $4.00–$4.10) with a stop‑loss around $3.80 to protect against a prolonged negative read‑out. If the trial data are released and beat expectations, consider scaling in on a breakout above $4.50, targeting a short‑to‑medium‑term upside of $5.00–$5.30, which reflects the market’s anticipation of a future revenue pipeline worth $150‑$200 M once the product reaches commercialization.