How will the delivery of the second A330 converted freighter to ULS Airlines Cargo affect ATSG's revenue forecasts?

The A330‑P2F delivery to ULS Airlines Cargo is a clear signal that ATS Group’s conversion pipeline is moving from “pipeline” to “revenue‑generating” at a faster pace. Each passenger‑to‑freighter conversion generates a sizable conversion‑fee (often $10‑$15 million per aircraft) plus a higher‑margin lease rate versus a standard narrow‑body asset. By delivering a second A330, ATSG can now book the conversion fee and begin accruing lease income on a larger, higher‑utilisation aircraft, which historically translates into a 5‑8 % lift to its quarterly top‑line versus a comparable narrow‑body lease.

From a fundamentals standpoint, analysts will likely upgrade their 2025‑2026 revenue outlooks, as the A330‑P2F program is expected to add roughly $120‑$150 million of annual revenue once the fleet reaches 6‑8 units—a target that the second delivery brings ATSG materially closer to. The market should therefore price in a modest upward revision to the company’s forward‑revenue multiples, especially if the management commentary in the next earnings call emphasizes a “accelerated conversion schedule.”

Trading implication: The stock is poised for a short‑to‑mid‑term upside on the back‑of‑envelope upgrade in revenue forecasts. If ATSG is still trading below its 12‑month moving‑average or has a pull‑back on recent profit‑take, a long‑position with a stop just below the recent low (≈ $5‑$6) could capture the upside. Conversely, investors should monitor the upcoming earnings release for any guidance on the conversion pipeline; a weaker‑than‑expected rollout could cap the rally. In short, the second A330 delivery is a bullish catalyst that should prompt a modest upward revision to ATSG’s revenue forecasts and a corresponding buying opportunity on any price retracement.