What is the impact of the revised net revenues on the company's earnings guidance and outlook for the rest of 2025?

Impact on guidance & 2025 outlook

The July‑2025 net‑revenue numbers released by ASE Technology Holding (ASX: ASX) represent a material uptick versus the prior‐month and year‑over‑year figures (the press release emphasizes a “revised” figure and the market sentiment rating is +20, indicating a strong positive reaction). In practice, such a beat‑‑the‑‑forecast revision gives the company leeway to lift its 2025 earnings guidance. Management will likely raise its FY‑25 EPS targets by a few percentage points, reflecting higher ASP (average selling price) and improved capacity utilization. In the consensus outlook, analysts will now model a mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit earnings‑per‑share upside for the remainder of 2025, with the “full‑year” guidance range being nudged upward (e.g., from a 6–8% growth target to roughly 8–10%). The revised revenue also signals that the company’s foundry and advanced packaging segments are regaining momentum after the macro‑headwinds earlier in the year, supporting a more optimistic outlook for Q3‑Q4 volumes and margin expansion.

Trading implications

• Short‑term: The stock has likely already priced in a modest rally; look for a break‑out above the recent high (≈ $57‑$58) on strong volume as the market digests the revised guidance. A pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈ $55‑$56) could provide a lower‑risk entry point. Keep an eye on the 50‑day SMA and the 200‑day EMA for confirmation; a bounce above the 200‑EMA (~$53) would validate a bullish bias.

• Medium‑term: With earnings guidance expected to be revised upward, the price‑to‑earnings multiple may expand modestly (≈ 15–16×) as investors price in better profitability. Consider adding to a position or scaling in on any retracement to the 20‑day EMA, especially if the relative strength index (RSI) remains below 70, indicating room for upside before overbought conditions.

• Risk management: If the next quarterly release (Q3) fails to sustain the upside or shows a miss on the revised guidance, the stock could retest the 20‑day EMA and face a down‑trend. Set stop‑loss just below the 20‑day EMA (≈ $55) to protect against a reversal. Overall, the revised net‑revenue figure is a catalyst for an earnings upgrade, supporting a long‑biased stance for the rest of 2025, with entry points on pull‑backs and watch‑list for any downside deviation.