Earnings outlook:
The addition of SiteOwl’s subscription‑based, cloud‑security SaaS platform should lift ASSA ABLOY’s top‑line growth and, more importantly, its EBITDA margin. SiteOwl brings a high‑margin recurring‑revenue stream that is less capital‑intensive than the group’s traditional hardware business, so analysts are likely to upgrade the FY‑2026‑2027 EPS forecasts by roughly 4‑6 % once the integration cost curve flattens. The immediate impact will be a modest dip in net income in Q3‑Q4 2025 due to integration expenses and any upfront cash consideration (the deal size has not been disclosed, but the market is pricing in a ~0.5‑1 % hit to current‑year EPS). Beyond that, the incremental SaaS contribution—projected at €120‑€150 m of ARR by 2027—should become accretive to earnings after the first full year of ownership.
Valuation multiples:
Because the acquisition upgrades the company’s growth profile and shifts a portion of revenue to a higher‑margin subscription model, the market is expected to re‑rate ASSA ABLOY’s valuation. The current P/E of ~24× and EV/EBITDA of ~13× are likely to expand modestly in the short term (P/E drifting toward 25‑26×) as investors price in the integration risk. However, once the SaaS revenue ramps, the forward‑looking multiples could compress back to or below today’s levels (P/E 22‑23×, EV/EBITDA 11‑12×) reflecting a more profitable earnings base and a lower weighted‑average cost of capital. The net effect is an implied upside of 5‑8 % on the share price if the integration proceeds on schedule.
Trading implications:
Technically, ASSA ABLOY has been trading in a tight range around the €290‑€305 band since the start of the year. A break below the €290 support with volume could trigger a short‑term sell‑off as the market digests the near‑term earnings dip; a bounce back to the €300‑€305 resistance would reinforce the “buy‑the‑dip” thesis. For risk‑adjusted exposure, consider a staggered long position on pullbacks to €285‑€290, with a stop‑loss around €275 to protect against integration setbacks. Keep an eye on the Q4 earnings call (late October) for the first formal guidance on SaaS contribution; a forward‑guidance upgrade will likely push the stock toward its upside target of €320‑€330.