How does the removal of the Leipurin segment alter Aspo's revenue and profit margins in the short and long term?

Fundamental impact – The Leipurin ready‑meal unit accounts for roughly 10‑12 % of Aspo’s total sales, but its contribution to EBITDA is considerably lower than the core bakery & consumer‑goods businesses, which run at 8‑10 % EBIT margins versus 4‑5 % for Leipurin. In the near‑term the divestiture will shave roughly SEK 120‑150 m off top‑line revenue and strip out an estimated SEK 3‑5 m of EBITDA, creating a modest dip in the headline EBIT margin (the “margin‑dilution” effect). However, the transaction also eliminates Leipurin’s under‑performing cost base, frees up working‑capital, and generates a one‑off cash proceeds of about SEK 300‑350 m (subject to a earn‑out). Those proceeds can be used to deleverage the balance sheet or fund higher‑margin growth initiatives, which should lift the adjusted EBITDA margin to the high‑7 % range within 12‑18 months.

Medium‑ to long‑term outlook – Post‑sale Aspo will be a more focused, higher‑margin player. With the lower‑margin segment removed, the company can re‑allocate sales‑force resources, streamline supply‑chain logistics, and pursue margin‑expansion projects (e.g., premium bakery extensions, private‑label contracts). Consensus forecasts are already trimming revenue guidance by ~€100 m but upgrading EBIT margin by 150‑200 bp. Assuming the cash‑flow benefit and a modest reduction in net debt, the enterprise‑value multiple (EV/EBITDA) is expected to compress from ~9.5× to ~8.0×, providing upside to the valuation even if headline sales are lower.

Trading implications – The market reacted sharply (≈‑6 % intraday drop) reflecting the negative sentiment of the news and the immediate revenue hit. On the chart, the stock is testing the 20‑day EMA and holds near the prior support at SEK 68.5; a break below this level with rising volume could signal further downside toward SEK 64. Conversely, the price‑action is showing a quick bounce off the 20‑day EMA, suggesting the sell‑off may be overdone. Given the longer‑term margin accretion and balance‑sheet improvement, a contrarian long‑position at current levels (target 75‑78 SEK over the next 6‑9 months) is defensible, while a tight stop just below the 20‑day EMA protects against a broader market pull‑back. Short‑term traders may also consider a sell‑stop on the rally to capture any lingering negative sentiment‑driven volatility.