How will the modest comparable sales growth impact our earnings outlook for the full fiscal year?

Impact on FY 2025 earnings outlook

Academy Sports’ Q2 comparable‑sales growth of only 0.2% signals that the core consumer traffic and basket size are barely expanding despite a 3.3% headline‑sales increase that is being driven largely by higher pricing and ancillary revenue streams. In a low‑inflation environment, such tepid same‑store growth typically translates into modest top‑line growth for the full year—likely in the low‑single‑digit range rather than the mid‑teens the company previously hinted at. Assuming operating expenses remain disciplined, the incremental margin contribution from price increases may partially offset the weak volume, but the net effect is expected to be a downward revision of FY 2025 EPS guidance, perhaps 5‑8% below consensus estimates.

Trading implications

The market has already priced in a modest upside, as reflected by the relatively muted sentiment score (30). The stock is currently testing the 50‑day moving average around $XX and holds a bullish flag on the 4‑hour chart, but the lack of robust comps caps upside potential. A break below the 20‑day EMA with volume would likely trigger a short‑term pull‑back toward the $XX support level and open the door for a risk‑reversal entry. Conversely, a clean close above the flag‑pattern high (~$XX) with a bounce off the 200‑day MA would suggest the market is discounting the earnings‑impact and could present a contrarian long opportunity, especially for investors who believe cost‑control initiatives will preserve margins. In practice, a cautious “hold‑or‑buy‑on‑dip” stance is advisable until the company releases its FY 2025 guidance; a confirmed EPS downgrade would merit a modest short position or a reduction of existing long exposure.