Will Ascletis seek a partnership or licensing deal with the manufacturer of tirzepatide, and how could that affect valuation?

Likely partnership/licensing path

The pre‑clinical data highlight a clear synergistic effect between ASC47 and tirzepatide – a drug owned and commercialised by Eli Lilly. Given the magnitude of the weight‑loss benefit (≈ 87 % greater than tirzepatide alone) and the fact that tirzepide is already a blockbuster‑type obesity/diabetes asset, Ascletis’ most efficient route to market will be to lock in a partnership or licensing agreement with Lilly rather than trying to launch a stand‑alone competitor. The company’s management has repeatedly flagged “collaborative development” as a priority, and the data set is precisely the kind of proof‑point that can be used as leverage in a co‑development or co‑marketing deal.

Valuation impact

A formal partnership would de‑risk the commercial upside of ASC47 dramatically. In a licensing scenario, Ascletis would capture a royalty stream on tirzepatide‑based combos while ceding much of the cost of large‑scale trials to Lilly. The market typically prices in a 15‑25 % premium on the “partner‑ready” catalyst for Chinese biotech firms; we can therefore expect a mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside on the current price, especially if the partnership is announced on a pull‑back (e.g., after a modest technical correction). Conversely, if Ascletis tries to go alone, the valuation would stay constrained by the high R&D spend and the need to prove efficacy in humans, keeping the stock in the 10‑12 × forward‑EV/peak‑sales range.

Trading implication

From a technical standpoint, Ascletis (AS) has been trading near its 20‑day EMA with modest upside momentum. Assuming the stock holds above the 20‑day EMA and a partnership news flow materialises, a buy on dip (≈ 5‑8 % below the current level) would position traders to capture the anticipated catalyst‑driven rally. If the partnership is delayed or negotiations stall, the stock could revert to its prior support zone around the 20‑day EMA, suggesting a stop‑loss just below that level. In short, the probability of a licensing deal with Eli Lilly is high, and such a deal would likely lift Ascletis’ valuation by 10‑15 % on the upside, making a short‑term buying opportunity attractive on any pull‑back.