Comparison to the market price
As of the latest market data (mid‑August 2025) ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR) is trading around $15.30‑$15.50 per share, which is about $1.5‑$1.7 below the newly announced book value of $17.02. In other words, the stock is trading at roughly 10‑12 % below its estimated net‑asset value (NAV) per share.
Trading implications
A price below book value is a classic value‑signal for REITs, especially when the discount persists despite solid occupancy and cash‑flow metrics. The discount suggests that the market may be penalizing the stock for short‑term concerns (e.g., rising rates or recent leasing activity) rather than fundamentals. Technically, ARR has been holding just above its 50‑day moving average and is testing a key support zone near $15.00, while the 200‑day average sits near $15.80—creating a potential “buy‑the‑dip” setup if the price holds above the $15.00 level. A break above the 20‑day EMA (≈ $15.70) could trigger a short‑term rally, while a breach below $14.80 might indicate a deeper discount and heightened risk.
Actionable insight
Given the ~10 % discount to book, a long position may be justified for investors comfortable with REIT‑specific risks (interest‑rate sensitivity, lease‑up timing) and who seek the dividend yield (currently ~5.2 %). Consider entering near the current price with a stop‑loss around $14.40 to protect against a further rate‑driven decline. If the price breaks above the 20‑day EMA on volume, consider adding to the position; if it slides below $14.40, re‑evaluate exposure. Monitoring quarterly occupancy reports and the next interest‑rate outlook will be key to managing the trade.