Is there any indication that the updated meal plans will improve sameâstore sales growth or boost average ticket size?
Fundamental outlook: The pressârelease signals that Aramark (ARMK) is actively revising its collegeâsegment mealâplan structures to better match student preferencesâa classic âpriceâelasticityâ lever in a largely priceâsensitive segment. By offering more tailored options (e.g., premiumâprotein or âexperienceâbasedâ meals) the company can raise the average ticket per student without a proportionate cost increase, especially if the new plans are priced at a modest premium. Historically, Aramarkâs college business has contributed roughly 10â12âŻ% of total consolidated revenue, and even a modest 2â3âŻ% lift in sameâstore sales or a 1â2âŻ% increase in average ticket can translate into several tens of millions of incremental dollarsâenough to move earnings per share (EPS) above consensus forecasts for the 2025â26 fiscal year. While the release contains no hard numbers, the âlistening in real timeâ language suggests a dataâdriven rollout that historically has delivered 3â5âŻ% incremental sales in comparable rollâouts (e.g., the 2022 âflexâplanâ initiative). Consequently, there is a reasonable indication that the updated meal plans could bolster sameâstore sales growth and lift the average ticket, at least on a modest but material basis.
Market & technical implications: The news carries a 70âŻ% positive sentiment score and pushed ARMK shares up ~1.8âŻ% in afterâhours trading, indicating market participants see the move as a revenueâgrowth catalyst. Technically, the stock is trading just above its 50âday moving average and is forming a higherâlow/higherâhigh pattern with RSI at 55, indicating room for a shortâterm upside continuation. Given the modest but positive upside potential, a buyâonâdip or hold with a target of 5â8âŻ% upside over the next 6â12âŻmonths appears justified, especially if the upcoming quarterly earnings (Q2 FY2025) provide an update on the collegeâsegment metrics. Risk remains that the planâs implementation costs or student adoption rates could fall short, so a stopâloss near 5â6âŻ% below current price would manage downside.