When is the expected timeline for the investigation and any possible court rulings?

Investigation & litigation timeline

The press release dated 12 August 2025 only announces that Monteverde & Associates has opened a class‑action investigation into Aris Water Solutions (NYSE: ARIS). No concrete deadline is provided, but in comparable securities‑fraud cases the investigative phase usually runs 4 – 8 weeks to gather documents, interview insiders and request SEC or other regulatory records. Assuming the firm follows a typical schedule, the initial fact‑finding window will likely close by late September 2025.

If the investigation uncues material misstatements, the next step is filing a class‑action complaint in a federal district court. From filing to a first‑court ruling (e.g., a motion to dismiss or a preliminary injunction) generally takes 3 – 6 months. A full trial or settlement, however, can extend the timeline to 12‑18 months from the complaint date. Consequently, investors should expect the earliest possible court decision by early 2026 and a definitive resolution (settlement or trial verdict) sometime mid‑2026 to late 2026.

Trading implications

• Short‑term (next 4‑8 weeks): The market will likely price in the uncertainty of the investigation. Expect modest volatility and a modest‑to‑moderate downward pressure on ARIS shares as the “investigation announced” headline triggers risk‑averse selling.
• Mid‑term (Sept‑Dec 2025): If the investigation yields a complaint, the filing itself often causes a 10‑15 % dip in the stock, especially if the allegations involve revenue‑recognition or environmental compliance—key fundamentals for a water‑treatment firm.
• Long‑term (2026): A court ruling that favours shareholders (e.g., a class‑action settlement) could create a bounce‑back as the market re‑prices the expected cash flow recovery. Conversely, a dismissal or a ruling that the allegations lack merit could sustain the post‑investigation decline.

Actionable take‑away:

- Consider a short‑term defensive position (e.g., a modest stop‑loss‑protected short or a protective put) to capture the near‑term downside as the investigation unfolds.

- Maintain a larger upside exposure (e.g., a scaled‑up long position or a call spread) for a potential rebound after a favorable 2026 court ruling or settlement.

Overall, the investigation will likely be wrapped up by late September 2025, with the first court rulings emerging in early 2026 and a final resolution by mid‑to‑late 2026. Position accordingly to profit from both the short‑term risk‑off move and the longer‑term recovery potential.