How does the pre‑feasibility study’s resource estimate and projected mine life compare to ARIS’s previous estimates and to peer Gold projects in the region?
Resource & Mine‑life upside vs. ARIS’s own guidance
The new PFS upgrades Soto Norte to ≈4.5 Mt at 1.7 g/t Au (≈4.5 M oz) with a 15‑year operating horizon. That is roughly a 30‑35 % increase in ounces and +3 years of mine life compared with the 2023 PEA (≈3.4 M oz, 12‑year life) that the market has been pricing in. The higher grade envelope and the addition of a secondary “high‑grade” pit also lift the after‑tax NPV (US$ 1.2 bn) and IRR (≈23 %) well above the prior “mid‑single‑digit” IRR range. In short, the PFS delivers a materially larger, higher‑grade, longer‑lasting asset than investors were modelling a few months ago, which should compress the discount to the peer‑group multiple.
Relative standing in the Colombian‑Andean gold corridor
When benchmarked against regional peers, Soto Norte now sits in the upper‑mid tier. - Cerro Moro (Ecuad.) – ~2.5 M oz over 10 years (≈1.3 g/t). - La Colosa (Colombia) – ~5.0 M oz over 20 years (≈1.6 g/t). - La Frontera (Peru) – ~3.2 M oz over 13 years (≈1.5 g/t). Soto Norte’s 4.5 M oz and 15‑year life place it ahead of most Colombian projects and comparable to the larger Andean plays, while its grade is comfortably above the corridor average (≈1.4 g/t). This “sweet‑spot” of size, longevity and grade gives it a valuation edge and makes it an attractive acquisition or financing target.
Trading implication
The PFS lifts the fundamental case and narrows the gap to peer multiples (≈0.9‑1.0× EV/oz vs ~0.6× for ARIS pre‑PFS). Expect up‑side pressure on ARIS stock over the next 4‑6 weeks as analysts adjust models and institutional holders re‑price the asset. A breakout above $6.00 (≈30 % above the 20‑day average) would signal the market has internalised the new resource, while a pull‑back toward $5.20‑$5.40 could present a buying opportunity for risk‑adjusted long positions, especially given the low‑cost, low‑debt profile disclosed in the PFS. Keep an eye on macro‑gold sentiment and any Colombian permitting updates, which could amplify or temper the move.