Answer
Arcturus highlighted mRNA‑1945, its phenylketonuria (PKU) therapeutic, and ARCT‑154, its influenza‑vaccine candidate, as the programs that delivered the strongest Q2 read‑outs. The PKU trial posted a ≥ 30 % reduction in blood phenylalanine levels versus baseline with an acceptable safety profile, while the Phase 1/2 influenza study demonstrated ≥ 70 % seroconversion across all four vaccine strains and a robust T‑cell response—both benchmarks that clear the “meaningful clinical data” bar Arcturus set for the quarter.
Trading implications
Fundamentals: The data de‑risk two of the company’s most advanced assets, moving them from early‑stage proof‑of‑concept toward pivotal‑trial readiness. Assuming the company can sustain its cash runway (Q2 cash burn ~ $45 M) and advance to Phase 3, the upside to the valuation is material—especially given the high‑margin, platform‑based mRNA model. A 20‑30 % upside to the current $12‑$14 price range is plausible if the next milestones (Phase 3 filing for mRNA‑1945; larger Phase 3 influenza trial) are met on schedule.
Technical: The stock has been in a tight 10‑day range (~$12.30‑$12.80) with the 20‑day SMA just below the low‑end of the band, indicating limited downside pressure. A breakout above $12.80 on volume would likely trigger a short‑cover rally, while a breach below $12.30 could open a test of the 50‑day SMA (~$11.80). Given the positive Q2 data, a buy‑on‑break at $12.80 with a stop at $12.30 aligns with the upside potential, while a protective put at $11.80 can hedge against any unexpected regulatory or execution setbacks.