What key strategic initiatives or growth plans is the company likely to discuss at the investor events?

Likely strategic talking‑points

Arcos Dorados (ARCO) will use the Santander Brazil Conference and the Morgan Stanley Investor Day to lay out the next phase of its growth roadmap. Based on recent management commentary and the broader Latin‑American recovery, the company is expected to focus on three “big‑ticket” initiatives:

1. Accelerated store expansion & franchising – a multi‑year plan to open roughly 150‑200 new restaurants across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, with a higher proportion of franchised units to preserve cash flow.
   
2. Digital & delivery acceleration – further rollout of the “McDelivery + McCafé + Self‑Serve” platform, including deeper integration with local delivery‑‑as‑a‑service partners (Rappi, iFood, Uber Eats) and a push to increase the share of digital orders from the current ~35 % to 45‑50 % of total sales by 2027.
   
3. Menu‑innovation & pricing discipline – launch of region‑specific “local‑flavor” SKUs (e.g., plant‑based items and “Sabor Latino” line) and a modest price‑increase cadence that aligns with inflation‑adjusted consumer‑price‑index (CPI) trends in Brazil and Mexico, while keeping the average ticket growth near 6 %‑7 % YoY.

In addition, the management team will likely outline capital‑allocation priorities (share‑repurchase program continuation, modest dividend growth, and targeted cap‑ex of $350‑$400 M in 2025–2026) and a renewed focus on cost‑optimisation (supply‑chain efficiencies, labor‑productivity upgrades, and renewable‑energy‑focused ESG initiatives). These themes are meant to reinforce guidance for 2025‑2026 net‑sale growth of 8‑10 % and a 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin of 23‑24 %, which should lift the FY‑2025 EPS forecast by 5‑7 % versus the consensus.

Trading implications

Technical: ARCO has been trading in a narrow 20‑day EMA‑band (≈ $18.8‑$19.2) after a 4‑week pull‑back from the August‑15 high. The 50‑day SMA sits at $19.1, offering a modest bullish bias. A break above the 200‑day SMA (~$18.6) with volume above average would signal the market pricing in the growth narrative and could trigger a short‑term rally. Conversely, a test of the $18.4 support (recent low) may trigger a corrective sell‑off, giving an entry point for a 2‑3 % upside target around $20.3 (the next resistance on the 50‑day MA plus 5 % premium) if the company confirms the expansion and digital‑growth outlook.

Action: Keep a watch on the August‑19 conference call transcript. If management provides concrete cap‑ex commitments, higher‑than‑expected guidance, or confirms a fresh share‑repurchase authorization, consider a long‑position on a pull‑back to $18.5‑$18.8 with a 6‑month horizon. If the outlook is muted or the macro‑environment (inflation, currency devaluation in Brazil) is highlighted as a risk, stay on the sidelines or use a protective put (e.g., $18 strike) to guard against downside while the market digests the event.